Seoul is picking the wrong battle, with real implications for itself, Washington, and the region.
As 2018 begins, tensions in Asia continue to mount. North Korea is increasing the range and sophistication of its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles as well as its cyber capabilities; China is building up its military, militarizing artificial islands, repressing human rights, and engaging in coercion against Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and India.
To preserve the “free and open Indo-Pacific” that has served as the basis for peace and prosperity in the region, the United States needs the help of other regional stakeholders, particularly its South Korean and Japanese allies. Unfortunately, while Washington and Tokyo are well-coordinated on messaging and policy, the Moon Jae-in administration in Seoul has taken a number of steps that are driving a wedge in relations with Tokyo, despite Moon’s promise this past June not to let historical issues hamper the development of cooperative ties with Japan.
During Moon’s December state visit to China, a country that waged economic warfare against the South for more than a year over Seoul’s decision to permit the U. S. to deploy a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery on the peninsula, Moon focused on remembering the Sino-Korean experience of Japanese invasion and colonization in the early 20th century. He even went so far as to make the first stop on his trip Nanjing, arriving on the 80th anniversary of the massacre perpetrated by the Japanese Imperial Army.
Moon’s solicitous approach is unlikely to earn him any leverage with Beijing. His humiliating treatment while in China — where he was met at the airport by an extremely low-ranking foreign ministry official, was refused a lunch with Prime Minister Li Keqiang, and suffered the indignity of watching members of his own traveling press corps beaten by Chinese security guards — gave a clear indication of what such efforts will elicit from Xi Jinping in terms of gratitude.
Additionally, despite the intensifying military threat from North Korea, the Moon administration opted to go ahead with a military drill to defend the disputed Liancourt Rocks, even though Tokyo has never evinced any signs of planning to use force to regain them.
