“Democrats are fired up like crazy”
Democrats in Northern Kentucky will give Donald Trump credit for one thing.
For the first time since 1994, every state House and Senate race in Northern Kentucky has a Democrat running.
Democrats believe Trump’s polarizing presidency played a role in motivating historic numbers of Northern Kentucky Democrats to run for the state legislature.
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“Democrats are fired up like crazy,” said Kathy Groob, a Democratic strategist from Covington.
There are 12 Democrats running for nine House seats and one Senate seat. The filing deadline is Tuesday at 4 p.m.
The Democrats will face an uphill climb in Northern Kentucky, where they’ve become a rare sight in the past two decades.
At the county level and above, almost all elected officials are Republican. The few surviving Democrats at that level include two state representatives and Campbell County Commonwealth’s Attorney Michelle Snodgrass.
The region backed Trump with 62 percent of the vote.
Most of Democrats who’ve filed are first-time candidates facing well-known and well-connected Republican incumbents.
Only one of the Democratic House candidates so far won’t face a Republican incumbent. That’s former Covington fire chief Buddy Wheatley, who has filed for the seat representing Covington and northern Kenton County.
If he wins, the Democrats won’t gain a seat – a Democrat already held it, Rep. Arnold Simpson. Simpson isn’t seeking re-election after more than 20 years in the legislature.
Democrats might have a shot at one open Republican seat in Northern Kentucky. That’s the one currently occupied by Rep. Brian Linder, R-Dry Ridge, who represents southern Kenton County and all of Grant County.
Linder, elected in 2012, hasn’t filed for re-election as of Monday afternoon. Linder came under fire in November when it was revealed he was one of four lawmakers who signed a confidential sexual harassment settlement. The settlement led to Rep. Jeff Hoover resigning as speaker of the House.
He didn’t respond to a message seeking comment.
A Democrat and two Republicans have filed for Linder’s seat.
Republicans remain undaunted and even think they can make some gains in Northern Kentucky by capturing the last two seats held by Democrats in Northern Kentucky.
Trump won’t help the Democrats in the region, said Greg Shumate, Republican Party chairman for Kenton County.
“If Trump has any effect, it is going to be a positive effect for the Republicans,” Shumate said. “People wish he would tweet a little less, but by and large, most people here support his positions.”
A Republican, Bob Schrage, will challenge the one Democratic incumbent state representative running for re-election, Rep. Dennis Keene, D-Wilder.
A viable Republican candidate will file Tuesday for Simpson’s vacated seat, as well, Shumate said.
Shumate couldn’t reveal who that was.
“I think that will be the biggest race in Northern Kentucky,” Shumate said. “It’s going to be competitive.”
Experts see Republicans retaining control of Kentucky’s state government. They hold a secure majority in the Senate, 27 to 11, and House, 62 to 36.
There’s a slim chance anti-Trump sentiment might sweep the state, said Al Cross, who is director of the University of Kentucky’s Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues.
Cross doesn’t see that happening. Trump won Kentucky by 30 percentage points.
Add to that nine Democratic incumbents in the House who aren’t seeking re-election and 15 House Republicans who are going unchallenged, a power shift seems unlikely.
But who knows?
“We live in unpredictable times,” Cross said.
