Peter Baker, our chief White House correspondent, answered readers’ questions on Facebook Live about the coming Senate hearing with Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh.
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On Thursday, the Senate Judiciary Committee will question Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, and Christine Blasey Ford, the first of three women who have accused Judge Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when he was a young man.
Peter Baker, our chief White House correspondent, responded to readers’ questions about the hearing and Judge Kavanaugh’s prospects of confirmation on Facebook Live on Wednesday. Below are excerpts from the segment, which have been edited and condensed.
Right now, we have a 51-to-49 Senate. That means Republicans have 51 seats and can only afford to lose one vote if the Democrats don’t go along with Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination.
If the Republicans lose one senator, Vice President Mike Pence will have the tiebreaking vote, and they can still confirm Judge Kavanaugh. If they lose two Republican senators and don’t get any Democrats, this confirmation is over. That’s why Thursday is so important.
The impressions that four or five key Republican senators get from this hearing will probably determine Judge Kavanaugh’s fate. Those senators are Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, Jeff Flake of Arizona, maybe Bob Corker of Tennessee and maybe Dean Heller of Nevada.
It’s a matter of time for one thing. The Republicans say that Democrats are trying to drag out the confirmation process by asking for an investigation into the allegations. The Democrats, on the other hand, say, “The F. B. I. can actually do a lot in just a handful of days; why are the Republicans rushing this?”
This is also taking place during a heated midterm election season. In just six weeks, voters will decide who the next Congress members will be.
We just don’t know. Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, said on Tuesday that he’s confident they have the votes to confirm Judge Kavanaugh.
In fact, Republicans are so confident that they scheduled a vote for the Judiciary Committee on Friday morning without waiting for the results of the hearing on Thursday.
But that may be misplaced confidence. Just two Republican senators can stop this nomination if the Democrats unanimously vote against him.
Dr. Blasey took a polygraph administered by a former F. B. I. agent hired by her attorney. She passed it, according to the agent. Judge Kavanaugh has not been formally asked by the committee to take a polygraph or volunteered to take one.
Polygraphs are controversial. Most lawyers would tell somebody like Judge Kavanaugh not to take one because you never know whether it will be reliable, and you could get an unfavorable result.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island, broached the idea of impeaching Justice Kavanaugh if he were confirmed to the Supreme Court and Democrats took control of Congress. That’s possible, but unlikely.
Impeachment is a big deal: It would require not just a majority of the House, which Democrats may have after the election, but two-thirds of the Senate. That would mean some Republicans would have to vote for conviction to remove him. And they would have to be convinced that Judge Kavanaugh lied under oath when he denied these allegations.
Judge Kavanaugh will be subject to penalty of perjury on Thursday, just as Dr. Blasey will be. But proving in the future that he lied is harder than saying, “We don’t think he should be on the Supreme Court.”
About two weeks ago, there were probably four or five Democrats in red states won by President Trump who were considered possible votes for Judge Kavanaugh by the White House — senators like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota.
But those senators are now seen to have a freer hand to vote against Judge Kavanaugh. They’re no longer as worried about the political ramifications of their votes in these Trump-friendly states because the allegations of sexual misconduct give them a reason to do so that they think would pass muster with their constituency.
President Trump would come forward with another nominee. He had three other finalists before selecting Judge Kavanaugh in July. Mr. Trump could go back to one of those three or choose somebody else. But it seems very unlikely that the Trump administration could get another nominee vetted and confirmed before the November midterms.
It starts at 10 a.m., and The Times will be live-streaming it on our site. We’ll also have a live briefing with commentary by our reporters telling you what’s important and what’s not.
Here’s how the hearing will play out: Dr. Blasey will have a chance to make an opening statement, and the senators who lead the committee — Senator Chuck Grassley, the committee chairman, and Senator Dianne Feinstein, the ranking Democrat — will then make their opening statements. The Republicans then plan to hand over their time — each senator has five minutes — to Rachel Mitchell, the Arizona prosecutor whom they’ve hired to question Dr. Blasey.
The questions will rotate back and forth with Democratic senators, who plan to question her themselves. And after lunch Judge Kavanaugh will come in and be questioned as well. He will also have an opportunity to respond to the allegations.
Long before these allegations came up, most Democrats and Republicans were probably pretty close to certain about how they were going to vote just based on his judicial philosophy, his qualifications and their views of the Supreme Court.
But why are they going through the motions on Thursday when some people seem to have made up their minds? There are some who may still not be sure. Senator Murkowski, for example, told my colleague Nick Fandos on Monday that this should be taken seriously.
At this point, there’s no known move to delay Thursday’s hearing or to address the new allegations in it, but it would not be surprising to see the Democratic senators on the committee bring them up during their questioning of Judge Kavanaugh.
