In some cities, it’ll be like moving two states south.
The National Climate Assessment, a stunning report released by 13 federal agencies and the White House late last month, showed that climate change has already had devastating impacts on our health and economy, and that costs could mount to hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century.
The report maps out what we can expect if we aggressively cut greenhouse gas emissions now, and what would happen if we do nothing. As part of our Weather 2050 project, we used the latter scenario to look at what could happen to temperature and precipitation in US cities by the middle of the century.
We found that by 2050, many US cities may resemble hotter, more southern parts of the country today. We’ve mapped a few of the most striking transitions here:
As you can see in this map, climate change means cities could move further south in terms of their temperature and rainfall patterns. In some cases, the closest match may be hundreds of miles away. If you want to get a sense of what climate change could mean for your city, you might need to take a road trip.
By 2050, in Cleveland, Ohio, the average summer high is going to heat up by 5.4°F. The average winter low will rise by 5.3°F. That means Cleveland will have the climate of a St. Louis suburb more than 500 miles away.
Let’s zoom in on how climate in different regions could shift. Take a look at this animation of changes in the northeastern US:
You can see that Scranton, Pennsylvania, will have a climate that resembles that of Round Hill, Virginia, today. That’s a distance of about 220 miles as the crow flies, but it means that Scranton will face average summer peaks that are 4.8°F higher and winter temperature low that are 5.5°F higher.
We can also see this in the southeastern US:
Cities in the South are moving even further south. By 2050, annual temperature and precipitation patterns in Atlanta, Georgia, will look more like Selmont, Alabama, today. That’s a move of more than 200 miles, with the average summer high jumping 4.1°F to 92.6°F.
Other parts of the country may see smaller shifts by 2050, as you can see in this map of the Southwest:
Apache Junction, Arizona, will likely experience a year-round climate that’s more like Peoria, Arizona, a city that’s just 50 miles west.
