Arizona, already tallying early votes, could be one of the earliest swing states called and may be a preview of who will win the rest of the country. John Dickerson reports on how the state has gone from an easy GOP win to a toss-up between Biden and Trump.
As the votes come in Tuesday night, the answer to some of the election’s most pressing questions may be found in the new battleground state of Arizona. It has many of the key voting groups that will be pivotal in a host of close states, and an early-voting system that has been tested in the past and has been tabulating votes for two weeks, meaning we’ll know who the bulk of those voters picked by the end of the night. Joe Biden has enjoyed a small, but consistent lead in Arizona since the summer thanks to suburban women, seniors and Latinos. Which suggests the one-time home of American conservatism could be changing in the same way the country is, becoming more diverse and more educated. But Democrats thought that in 2016 too. That long line of green envelopes you see marching together contains just some of the record number of completed mail-in ballots from Arizona voters. First, they are processed through state-of-the art machines, then they’re sent to ballot tabulation centers for counting. Arizonans of both parties have been voting safely and easily by mail since 1992. This election, for the first time, state officials started tabulating ballots 14 days before the election. As of tonight, millions of early votes have been processed. The results sit in secure servers, those red and blue machines, that are sealed, transparent and not connected to the internet. And no one knows what those results are. Katie Hobbs: We’re allowed to post results an hour after polls close, so 8 p.m. on election night here in Arizona. Katie Hobbs is Arizona’s secretary of state and chief election officer. John Dickerson: On election night, how much will it be an advantage that you will have been able to start counting for 14 days? Katie Hobbs: That’s a huge advantage, particularly over states that are seeing a huge increase in the volume of voting by mail and statutorily aren’t able to start processing ballots until that day. We’re certainly going to be ahead of them. That anyone is holding their breath about the outcome of the race in Arizona is notable. It’s a longtime Republican state, but it is changing. Seven million people now live in Arizona, spurred by America’s fastest-growing county, Maricopa County. The home of Phoenix and Tempe, it’s also known for its blooming suburbs. It accounts for 60% of Arizona’s vote and no Democrat has carried Maricopa County since 1948. John Dickerson: Traditionally, would we be in a ruby red part of Arizona? Yasser Sanchez: Maricopa County is the largest county that Trump won the last election. And so this is the center of Trumpville in Arizona. If Arizona turns blue it will be in part because of voters like Yasser Sanchez and his wife, Emily, conservatives who live in the Maricopa County suburb of Gilbert. In 2016, they never saw a Hillary Clinton sign in their neighborhood. Now the streets by their house are dotted with Trump and Biden signs poking from the alternating beach towel-sized front lawns. They’ve added a new entrant in the sign wars: Arizona Republicans for Biden. Yasser and Emily are voting for a Democrat for the first time. John Dickerson: So how’s that goin’ over? Emily Sanchez: I’ve noticed people coming out of the woodwork, but interestingly enough, silently. They’ll come and say, “Hey, I see that you’re supporting Biden. I am too. But I can’t really tell anyone,” or, “I can’t tell my family.” John Dickerson: So people talk about shy Trump voters. Are there shy Biden voters? Emily Sanchez: Absolutely. COVID-19 has hurt Donald Trump in the state. The virus hammered Arizona in June and July, making the state the hot spot in the nation at one point. Yasser, Emily and four of their five kids all got the virus at the same time. Emily Sanchez: For me, the campaign is personal. It is no longer political. John Dickerson: Why? Emily Sanchez: Because we’ve personally gone through COVID-19. We have also seen worse where friends have died. Yasser Sanchez: And for the president to dismiss it as no big deal or the flu or just play politics with it, it’s more than offensive. It, it enrages me. It makes me so angry. So angry, Yasser helped organize an unusual coalition of latinos, liberals and conservatives who convened on a recent Saturday morning to launch a unique parade. A caravan supporting Joe Biden in former Republican strongholds. While that mile-long procession was blaring its way through Maricopa County.
