“This is now a different kind of war, reminiscent of Syria.” The seizure of five capitals has amplified fears about Afghanistan’s future after the U.S. withdrawal.
The Taliban seized three Afghan cities on Sunday, including the commercial hub of Kunduz, officials said, escalating a sweeping offensive that has claimed five provincial capitals in three days and shown how little control the government has over the country without American military power to protect it. Never before in 20 years of war had the Taliban directly assaulted more than one provincial capital at a time. Now, three fell on Sunday alone — Kunduz, Sar-i-Pul and Taliqan, all in the north — and even more populous cities are under siege, in a devastating setback for the Afghan government. The fall of these cities is taking place just weeks before U.S. forces are set to complete a total withdrawal from Afghanistan, laying bare a difficult predicament for President Biden. Since the U.S. withdrawal began, the Taliban have captured more than half of Afghanistan’s 400-odd districts, according to some assessments. And their recent attacks on provincial capitals have violated the 2020 peace deal between the Taliban and the United States. Under that deal, which laid the path for the American withdrawal from the country, the Taliban committed to not attacking provincial centers like Kunduz. On Sunday, administration officials said that Mr. Biden had been briefed on the events in Afghanistan but was not changing course on the final troop pullout. The Taliban’s rapid victories have amplified fears about the Afghan security forces’ ability to defend what territory remains under government control. Since May, the insurgents have swept across the country’s rural areas and, in late June, they began assaulting major Afghan cities for the first time in years. Provincial capitals are often the last islands of government presence in provinces flush with Taliban fighters, and they shelter hundreds of thousands of Afghans who have been recently displaced by fighting. Adding to many Afghans’ unease, the Taliban have trumpeted their recent victories on social media in a concerted effort to promote the sense that their return to power is inevitable. The string of Taliban victories has intensified both the strategic and psychological encircling of Kabul, the nation’s capital. While the Taliban have continued their assassination campaign against Afghan officials and civil society figures in the capital in recent days, they have not yet begun any intense military operations around Kabul, perhaps waiting to gauge the American and government reaction to their recent triumphs. The simultaneous sieges on provincial hubs have exhausted Afghan security forces and stretched military resources dangerously thin. Overwhelmed, the Afghan forces have concentrated on defending key cities like Lashkar Gah and Kandahar in the south, Herat in the west and Kunduz in the north in recent days — leaving others vulnerable to capture.
