The start-or-sit dilemma is part of managing a fantasy football team. Having the foresight to start the wide receiver who goes for 100 yards and a touchdown in…
The start-or-sit dilemma is part of managing a fantasy football team. Having the foresight to start the wide receiver who goes for 100 yards and a touchdown in a matchup while sitting a receiver against a shutdown cornerback is one of the keys to victory. For this version of a start-or-sit, I’m going to be listing all relevant fantasy football players each week and placing them into tiers. And to take some of the guesswork out of it, I’ll be leveraging thousands of slate simulations that are based in numberFire’s player projections with dynamic measures for variance, such as quarterback rushing, running back receiving, and receiver target depth. The results will boil down to three tiers: players we should be confident about starting, players we can consider starting whenever we don’t have better alternatives, but who aren’t must-plays and players we should try to bench whenever we do have better alternatives. These players are listed in order of frequency of hitting the stated threshold (i.e. QB12, RB24, WR24, and TE12 performances and higher on the list means more start-able). The groupings reflect a 12-team, single-quarterback league with the following hypothetical in mind: if I had other viable options on my bench or the waiver-wire, should I start this player this week? Players not listed should be presumed sit-worthy in a shallow or standard-sized league, and all fantasy points references and rankings reflect half-PPR scoring. QUARTERBACKS Start with confidence: These players are at least 50% likely to finish the week as a top-12 quarterback, according to the slate simulations. Josh Allen vs. IND (74%) — Patrick Mahomes vs. DAL (72%) — Lamar Jackson at CHI (67%) — Dak Prescott at KC (65%) — Aaron Rodgers at MIN (59%) — Justin Herbert vs. PIT (56%) — Tom Brady vs. NYG (55%) — Jalen Hurts vs. NO (54%) — Ryan Tannehill vs. HOU (51%) Consider if needed: This tier has odds between 35% and 49% to post a top-12 week. — Tua Tagovailoa at NYJ (48%) — Cam Newton vs. WSH (46%) — Joe Burrow at LV (45%) — Derek Carr vs. CIN (45%) — Russell Wilson vs. ARI (45%) — Justin Fields vs. BAL (37%) — Mac Jones at ATL (36%) — Daniel Jones at TB (36%) — Kirk Cousins vs. GB (35%) — Jimmy Garoppolo at JAC (35%) With only two teams on byes, it’s a week without a huge need for streaming. For those of us who do need streamers, the options — in theory — should be better than usual. Tua Tagovailoa fits as a traditional streamer against a New York Jets defense that ranks 32nd in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play allowed. Tua, in three games against defenses ranked outside the top 20 in adjusted pass defense, has averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game by way of 259.3 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. The simulations are back on Cam Newton, who had a strong goal-line role in Week 10 that led to touchdowns on his first two plays. He’s “trending” toward starting, according to Carolina coach Matt Rhule. He’s a long-term option in addition to a Week 11 streamer. Joe Burrow has had a pretty easy schedule this year and has faced six pass defenses outside the top 20, via numberFire’s metrics. In these games, Burrow has averaged 19.6 fantasy points, stemming from 297.2 yards per game and 2.2 passing touchdowns. He gets another easy matchup this week: the Las Vegas Raiders are 25th. Derek Carr is also in play in that game against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are stingier against the run (seventh by numberFire’s metrics) than against the pass (20th). Notably, he has still gotten to 278.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game in his past two (without Henry Ruggs) albeit with worrisome passing efficiency. He’s not a top priority, but is in the conversation if needed. The simulations definitely don’t treat Russell Wilson as a must-start. He struggled mightily in his Week 10 return. Wilson generated only 161 yards on 43 drop backs. His Passing NEP per drop back of -0.38 was abysmal (NFL average is 0.11). The Arizona Cardinals are third in adjusted pass defense, as well. Since 2012, quarterbacks facing divisional opponents that are also top-six adjusted pass defenses have thrown for 300 yards in just 18% of their games (compared to a full-sample average of 26%). Bench if possible: These quarterbacks are under 35% likely (19th or worse) to net a top-12 result and likely aren’t in the one-quarterback-league conversation. Trevor Lawrence vs. SF (33%); Tyrod Taylor at TEN (32%); Taylor Heinicke at CAR (31%); Matt Ryan vs. NE (28%); Carson Wentz at BUF (28%); Joe Flacco vs. MIA (26%); Jared Goff at CLE (17%); Kyler Murray at SEA (12%)(asterisk); Trevor Siemian at PHI (11%); Baker Mayfield vs. DET (7%); Case Keenum vs. DET (4%); Colt McCoy at SEA (4%); Mason Rudolph at LAC (3%); Ben Roethlisberger at LAC (3%); Taysom Hill at PHI (1%); Trey Lance at JAC (1%).
