Joe Biden and Donald Trump need to give ‘double-unfavorable’ voters something to vote for, not just something to vote against.
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are all but assured the 2024 presidential nomination from their respective parties. There is a lot of say about key voting groups − such as will young Americans turn out to vote for Biden, or will suburban women move toward Trump?
One important voting group we will be watching is voters who are unfavorable toward both Biden and Trump. These “double haters” or “double unfavorables” show significant volatility, questionable turnout and a keen interest in third-party candidates.
They will be an essential group to understand and haven’t been discussed enough. We have never seen an election like the upcoming 2024 contest, and this group is one of many reasons why.
The latest Marquette University Law School national survey pegs this group as 17% of the electorate, which is nearly identical to the share of voters in 2016 who disliked both Hillary Clinton and Trump. Trump ended up winning this group, which broke toward him in the late stages of the campaign and may have been a key factor in his victory.
In 2020, however, just 3% of voters had an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, according to exit polling. Trump has managed to win votes among people who say they don’t like him as a person, but winning among people who dislike him is new terrain for Biden.
Who will win these double haters in November? Well, it’s not certain that either Biden or Trump will. In fact, in the latest national polls from Quinnipiac University, Marquette University and Morning Consult, Robert Kennedy Jr. wins a plurality among those who dislike both Biden and Trump.
