Democrats have seen their polling position improve significantly in the Tar Heel State with Harris as their candidate.
Democrats are hoping that Vice President Kamala Harris will flip North Carolina in this year’s presidential election as the Tar Heel State mails out its first 2024 ballots.
North Carolina began sending out mail-in absentee ballots on Friday. The state is among the first in the nation to begin the early voting process, although the in-person early voting period does not begin until October 17.
While former President Donald Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, recent polling has shown this year’s race as neck-and-neck, suggesting that Harris could end the ex-president’s streak in November.
But a Harris victory in North Carolina—which would be the first for Democrats since former President Barack Obama narrowly won the state in 2008—will likely require significantly improved voter turnout, especially among groups like Black voters, young voters and women.
Political analysts told Newsweek that early voting and enthusiasm for Harris among key demographic groups could carry the vice president to victory.Early Voting Is Crucial in North Carolina
Ashley Moraguez, co-chair and associate professor of political science at the University of North Carolina Asheville, told Newsweek that early voting and absentee ballots are “essential” to the election’s outcome because “an overwhelming majority of North Carolina voters utilize these methods to cast their votes.”
“In 2020, about 18 percent of NC voters voted by mail, while 65.5 percent voted early. While the pandemic likely pushed some of those numbers higher than they might have otherwise been, I think that those general trends will hold in this election cycle”, Moraguez said. “These methods of voting are much more convenient for most voters.”
“The popularity of these forms of voting can also potentially be determinative of the outcomes here in North Carolina, as they really compress the campaign timeline”, she added. “Voting will start in a matter of days and will be in full-swing here in the next six weeks. Candidates have to make their impressions soon to win the state.”
David McLennan, political science professor and pollster at North Carolina’s Meredith College, said that absentee and early voting are “extremely important to the election outcomes in North Carolina.”
“More North Carolinians use these two forms of voting each election cycle”, McLennan told Newsweek. “For example in 2020, almost 1.5 million absentee ballots were requested. Although this was the pandemic election, the growth of alternatives to in-person Election Day voting has been increasing.”
J. Michael Bitzer, politics and history professor and the T.P. & J.C. Leonard chair of political science at Catawba College, told Newsweek that although he believes mailed absentee ballots will “likely end up being 3-4 percent of the total ballots cast”, in-person early voting represents “the vast bulk” of all votes cast.
“We may see close to, if not exceeding, two-thirds of all the votes submitted come before Election Day in North Carolina”, Bitzer said.
