Ann Selzer is “reviewing her data” to determine why her poll, which set off a multi-day media firestorm, inaccurately predicted Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa.
Pollster J. Ann Selzer is “reviewing her data” to determine why her pre-election poll, which set off a multi-day media firestorm, inaccurately showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa.
Selzer is “reviewing her data to determine why a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released just days before the election produced results so far out of line with former President Donald Trump’s resounding victory”, according to the Des Moines Register.
The shock poll showed a 7-point shift from President-elect Donald Trump to Harris from September, when he had a 4-point lead over the vice president (47% to 43%) in the same survey. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released Saturday had Harris up 47% to 44 %, in a state Trump had carried easily in 2016 and 2020 and wasn’t considered a swing state in 2024.
Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., who conducted the poll, declared Harris had clearly “leaped into a leading position” ahead of Election Day.
Much of the media took her words as gospel, as pundits on MSNBC, CNN and ABC’s “The View” all celebrated the forecast. Even if it didn’t necessarily mean Harris would win Iowa given the polling average, a narrative spread that it could incidate a broader shift in the Midwest to Harris in more competitive states.
