‘In conditions where there is a sense, as there is now, of existential danger, all bets are off.’
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons during the civil war in his country that began in 2011. Today, as Islamist opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have overrun much of the country and are fast approaching the capital, some fear he may do so again out of sheer desperation.
“I am gravely concerned about the lives of every Syrian because of the real threat of chemical attacks,” said Raed Al-Saleh, director of the Syrian civil defense White Helmets organization.
The US deputy ambassador to the UN warned Syria’s chemical program is “not a relic of the past,” adding that, “It is in situations like the one we face today, when the Assad regime feels most at risk … that the regime previously unleashed chemical weapons on its own people.”
France’s representative to the UN Security Council also called on Assad’s regime to refrain from using these weapons.
Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, believes that Assad’s record of using chemicals means “nothing can ruled out.”
“In conditions where there is a sense, as there is now, of existential danger, all bets are off: whether it comes from Assad’s inner circle, or a military official acting alone as the command structure breaks down,” Orton told me.
“One can imagine someone trying something desperate.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the practicality of using chemicals like sarin in conditions of “fast-moving, fluid frontlines” means it’s less likely this will be Assad’s response.
“It should also be said that if the present pace of implosion continues, the regime will be undone before orders could be given to deploy chemical weapons,” Orton said.
During his first administration, President Donald Trump bombed Syria twice—on April 7, 2017, and April 14, 2018—in retaliation for chemical attacks.
“As Trump is almost solely concerned with his personal appearance and prestige, it seems likely chemical weapons use in Syria on his watch would bring a military response,” Orton said.
Aron Lund, a Syria expert and fellow with Century International, noted that credible reports of renewed chemical weapons usage could potentially spark an international crisis.
