Chris Berman has taken his Swami Sez NFL-picks segment, seen on SportsCenter, to ESPN Chalk this season. He gives his favorite picks against the spread here with some further analysis.
Playoff record ATS: 4-6
Regular-season record ATS: 51-32
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
I can’t believe this is my 35th Super Bowl, but I think we’re in for one of the better ones I’ve covered. The headlining offense in this one is Atlanta, which scored 540 points (eighth most in NFL history) this season — and 80 more in two playoff games. Matt Ryan has been playing like an MVP and I expect him to have a good game. The moment won’t be too big for him. I know Bill Belichick likes to take away the opposing team’s best offensive weapon, but I’m not sure the Patriots will be able to stop Julio Jones. He’s a beast and can beat press coverage or even multiple defenders. New England’s defense makes you earn first downs and is strong in the red zone. If the Falcons can make Mohamed Sanu and their running backs legitimate playmakers alongside Jones, they have a shot.
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If Atlanta’s offense is like a set of steak knives, New England’s is like a Swiss army knife. It was Dion Lewis in the divisional round and then Chris Hogan for 180 yards and two TDs against Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game. I wouldn’t be surprised if neither figured into this game. The only thing you can count on is Tom Brady finding New England’s all-time postseason leader Julian Edelman out of the slot. I think the Patriots run early and often, testing out that Atlanta front seven and seeing how stout it is. A strong running game will control the clock and keep Ryan and that high-powered offense on the sideline. And it’ll be interesting to see this Atlanta D early, since as Brady noted, it has played with a large lead most of the postseason.
New England hasn’t trailed since late November (against the Jets) and in the last five Super Bowls pitting the highest-scoring offense against the No. 1 scoring defense, the defense has won four times. This Atlanta D is talented, fast and on the rise — but it’s also young. I think New England wins one more for Brady and Belichick, and it’s a little lower-scoring than you might think.
Score: New England 27, Atlanta 21
