The SNP has a different set of questions to answer.
„But Spain“, is the common response to a discussion of whether, by voting for independence , Scotland could effectively reverse Brexit. „Disaster for Sturgeon as Spain BACKS May over plans to block Scottish independence vote,“ declared the Brexiteer’s favourite, The Express , this month. Spain, according to this narrative, would unilaterally puncture the SNP’s bubble by vetoing readmission to the EU. An independent Scotland would be cast adrift into the North Sea.
I just don’t buy it. I have put this question to everyone from former EU member state ambassadors to the former World Trade Organisation head and the answer has been the same: „It can be managed. “
There is also a crucial difference between Spain vetoing Scotland entering the EU, and considering its application on its own merit. Spain is indeed nervous about encouraging Catalonian separatists. But read between the lines. Spain’s position on Scotland has so far been to say it would have to exit the EU, become independent and reapply.
Last time I checked, that’s not a veto. And from an EU perspective, this isn’t as arduous as it might sound. Scotland’s regulations would be in line with EU regulations. It would not upset the balance of power, nor fuel an identity crisis, in the way that Turkey’s application did. Spain could justify acquiesence on the basis that the circumstances were extraordinary. And for a club struggling to hold together, an eager defector from the renegade Brexit Britain would be a PR coup.
Where it is far more arduous is for the Scottish National Party, and the independence movement. As I’ve written before, roughly a third of SNP voters also voted Leave. Apart from the second-glass-of-wine question of whether quitting one union to join another really counts as independence, Scotland’s fishing industry has concrete concerns about the EU. SNP MP Joanna Cherry has observed that it is „no secret“ that many Leave voters worked in fishing.
Then there are the questions all but the most diehard Remain voters will want answered. Would Scotland take the Euro? Would a land border with England be an acceptable sacrifice? Would an independent Scotland in the EU push for reforms at Brussels, or slavishly follow bureacracy’s lead? The terms of EU membership for an independent Scotland may look quite different from those enjoyed by the UK.
Rather than continuing to shoot down the idea that an independent Scotland could join the EU – a club happy to accept other small countries like Ireland, Austria and Malta – opponents of the Scottish independence movement should be instead asking these questions. They are far harder to answer.
The Scottish Parliament has voted for a second independence referendum by a margin of 10 votes on the eve of Westminster triggering Article 50.
After hours of debate – postponed after last week’s terrorism attack at Westminster – the MSPs voted 69 to 59 to back the First Minister’s call to trigger Section 30 of the Scotland Act.
MSPs voted for a Green amendment which demands votes for 16 and 17-year-olds, but amendments by Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems were defeated.
Nicola Sturgeon t ook Westminster by surprise in early March when she announced she would be seeking a second independence referendum for Scotland to decide before it was „too late to choose a different path“.
The Scottish Parliament can vote to demand a second referendum, it still needs permission from Westminster to hold one. So far, the Prime Minister has refused to countenance one before Brexit. After the vote, Scottish secretary David Mundell reinforced this message, suggesting a vote could not take place until the 2020s.
However, some unionists quietly fear that a tussle between Westminster and Holyrood over powers will only play in the nationalists‘ favour.
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