Seoul reasoned that Pyongyang would pursue dialogue because it was likely to seek international recognition of its status as a nuclear-armed country.
North Korea will be open to talks with the United States next year, South Korea’s government cheerfully predicted Tuesday as part of its 2018 outlook.
In its official forecast, Seoul reasoned that Pyongyang would pursue diplomatic dialogue and engagement with Washington — not open confrontation — because it was likely to seek international recognition of its status as a nuclear-armed country.
“North Korea may continue to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities while searching for an outlet externally,” South Korea’s Ministry of Unification said in its predictions for North Korea in 2018, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
“In searching for the recognition of its status as a de facto nuclear-possessing state, (the North) would explore the possibility of negotiations with the U. S.”
Still, while some U. S. diplomats, including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, have indicated they would be in favor of talks with Pyongyang, President Trump has consistently maintained that any talks with North Korea would be doomed to failure.
Trump believes that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un must first fully commit to giving up the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons before any talks can begin, something Kim has also consistently made clear he will not do. There was no immediate reaction from the White House or North Korea to the South Korean prediction.
South Korea’s Ministry of Unification, which promotes reunification of the two Koreas divided since 1945, said North Korea was also likely to attempt next year to restore diplomatic relations with Seoul. It said it would monitor the North Korean leader’s expected New Year’s address on Jan. 1 for any allusions to that possibility.
North Korea’s economy will start to seriously feel the pinch of international and bilateral sanctions next year as a result of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the ministry said. “North Korea is forecast to maximize efforts to endure (the impact of sanctions) by tightening social control and mobilizing its people for building the economy,” the ministry said, according to Yonhap.
Data released Tuesday by China’s General Administration of Customs showed that Beijing did not export to North Korea last month any oil products including gas, jet fuel, diesel or fuel oil. China is North Korea’s main source of fuel, but it has come under pressure to suspend its oil supplies to the country amid North Korean missile tests.
Separately Tuesday, Nikolay Patrushev, Russia’s Security Council secretary, warned that thousands of Americans would die if Trump ordered the U. S. military to attack North Korea. Such an outcome would amount to “unacceptable casualties in every country’s military language,” Patrushev told Russian media in Moscow.
