The rapidity with which falsity travels has been proverbial for centuries: “Falsehood flies, and the Truth comes limping after it,” wrote Swift in 1710. Yet empirical verification of this common wisdo| Techie World
The rapidity with which falsity travels has been proverbial for centuries: “Falsehood flies, and the Truth comes limping after it,” wrote Swift in 1710. Yet empirical verification of this common wisdom has been scarce — to our chagrin these past few years as lies in seven-league boots outpace a hobbled truth on platforms seemingly bespoke for this lopsided race.
A comprehensive new study from MIT looks at a decade of tweets, and finds that not only is the truth slower to spread, but that the threat of bots and the natural network effects of social media are no excuse: we’re doing it to ourselves.
The study, published today in Science, looked at the trajectories of more than 100,000 news stories, independently verified or proven false, as they spread (or failed to) on Twitter. The conclusion, as summarized in the abstract: “Falsehood diffused farther, faster, deeper, and more broadly than the truth in all categories of information.”
Image: Bryce Durbin/TechCrunch
But read on before you blame Russia, non-chronological feeds, the election or any other easy out. The reason false news (a deliberate choice in nomenclature to keep it separate from the politically charged “fake news”) spreads so fast is a very human one.
“We have a very strong conclusion that the spread of falsity is outpacing the truth because human beings are more likely to retweet false than true news,” explained Sinan Aral, co-author of the paper.
“Obviously we didn’t get inside the heads of the people deciding to retweet or consume this information,” he cautioned. “We’re really just scratching the surface of this. There’s been very little empirical large scale evidence one way or the other about how false news spreads online, and we need a lot more of it.”
Still, the results are robust and fairly straightforward: people just seem to spread false news faster.
It’s an unsatisfying answer, in a way, because people aren’t an algorithm or pricing model we can update, or a news outlet we can ignore. There’s no clear solution, the authors agreed — but that’s no reason why we shouldn’t look for one.
The study, which co-author Soroush Vosoughi pointed out was underway well before the current furor about fake news, worked like this.
The researchers took millions of tweets from 2006 to 2017 and sorted through them, finding any that related to one of 126,000 news stories that had been evaluated by at least one of six fact-checking organizations: Snopes, PolitiFact, FactCheck.org, Truth or Fiction, Hoax Slayer and About.com.
They then looked at how those news stories were posted and retweeted using a series of measures, such as total tweets and retweets, time to reach a threshold of engagement, reach from the originating account and so on.
These patterns form “cascades” with different profiles: for instance, a fast-spreading rumor that’s quickly snuffed out would have high breadth but little depth, and low virality.
The team compared the qualities of cascades from false news stories and true ones, and found that, with very few exceptions, false ones reached more people, sooner, and spread further.
And we’re not talking a few percentage points here. Some key quotes:
Every way that mattered, false reports moved faster and reached more people, usually by multiples or orders of magnitude.
Because no article about a study like this would be complete without a chart, the above shows truth in green and false stories in red — with false stories outpacing truth at every turn. (E and F show the time it takes to reach a certain popularity, so lower is “better.”)
Before we go on to the reasons why and the researchers’ suggestions for remedies and future research, we should address some potential objections.
“Our results are contrary to some of the hype recently about how important bots are to the process,” Aral said. “Not to say they aren’t important, but our research shows they aren’t the main driver.”
“We were very conscious of the potential for selection bias from starting with the fact checking organizations,” Aral said. “So we created a second set of 13,000 stories that were fact checked independently — all new stories. We ran that data and found very similar results.”
Three MIT undergrads were the ones independently verifying the 13,000-story data set, agreeing on veracity over 90 percent of the time.
One might suspect that structural elements of the network or individual characteristics of the users involved in the cascades explain why falsity travels with greater velocity than the truth. Perhaps those who spread falsity “followed” more people, had more followers, tweeted more often, were more often “verified” users, or had been on Twitter longer. But when we compared users involved in true and false rumor cascades, we found that the opposite was true in every case.
In fact, people spreading false news…
“Falsehood diffused farther and faster than the truth despite these differences, not because of them,” the researchers write.
On this count the researchers can only speculate, although their speculation is of the justified, data-backed sort. Fortunately, while the large-scale spreading of false news is a new and relatively unstudied phenomenon, sociology and psychology have more to say elsewhere.
“There’s actually extensive study in human communications in why certain news spreads faster, not just a common sense understanding of it,” explained Deb Roy, the third co-author of the paper. “It’s well understood that there’s a bias to our sharing negative over positive news, and also a bias to sharing surprising over unsurprising news.”
If people are more likely to spread news that’s novel (which is “almost definitional,” Roy said) and also news that’s negative (the “if it bleeds, it leads” phenomenon), then all that remains to be seen is whether false news is more novel and more negative than true news.
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The researchers analyzed a subset of users and their histories to compare the novelty of false versus true rumor tweets. They found that indeed, “false rumors were significantly more novel than the truth across all novelty metrics.”
Looking at word choice and the emotions associated with them, the researchers then found that false rumors created replies expressing surprise and disgust — while the replies to truths resulted in sadness, anticipation, joy and trust.
If humans are responsible for the spread of false news, what hope do we have? Well, don’t lose hope, this is an old problem and people have been dealing with it for centuries, as Swift showed us. Just maybe not on this scale.
Roy said he liked to frame the question as one of health. And in fact Jack Dorsey just last week used the same metaphor during a lengthy tweetstorm — citing Roy’s nonprofit company Cortico as the source for it.
We’re committing Twitter to help increase the collective health, openness, and civility of public conversation, and to hold ourselves publicly accountable towards progress.
— jack (@jack) March 1,2018
For instance, Aral pointed out issues on the economic side: “The social media advertising system creates incentives for spreading false news, because advertisers are rewarded for eyeballs.
