President Trump will host Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday amid tensions over North Korea and American tariffs.
WASHINGTON — No foreign leader has spoken more often with President Trump than Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. But when Mr. Trump welcomes Mr. Abe to his Palm Beach estate on Tuesday, tensions over trade and North Korea will pose the first real test to a relationship that has mainly blossomed on the fairways.
Golf is not on the leaders’ official schedule this time, and that may be just as well. Mr. Abe was blindsided in early March by Mr. Trump’s decision to meet North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un. He was stung even more two weeks later when the president exempted every major American ally, except Japan, from stiff new tariffs on steel and aluminum.
American and Japanese officials said they expected Mr. Abe, who is a hard-liner on North Korea, to warn Mr. Trump about the traps he faces in talking to Mr. Kim. They also expect him to confront the president on trade, something he has avoided since the two men first met, out of fear that it would stir Mr. Trump’s grudge against Japan, dating back to the 1980s, over its surpluses with the United States.
Mr. Trump injected even more uncertainty into the meeting by announcing that he would consider rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional trade pact, anchored by Japan, that he pulled the United States out of in his first week in office. But he also reiterated his determination to negotiate a new trade agreement directly with Japan, which Mr. Abe has resisted, tweeting that Japan “has hit us hard on trade for years!”
“Abe’s reputation as an adroit manager of his personal relationship with Trump has been a political asset for him at home,” said Daniel R. Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs. “But it’s been badly dented by this series of bombshells.”
“Is this still a buddy movie?” he said, “or is Abe the ex?”
White House officials insist it is still the former, pointing out that Mr. Abe is the only leader to be a repeat guest at Mr. Trump’s estate, Mar-a-Lago. The men have met six times and spoken by phone 20 times, though not since March 8, the evening that Mr. Trump stunned Mr. Abe, as well as his own aides, by accepting Mr. Kim’s invitation to a meeting.
Mr. Trump, a senior administration official said, has a lot of respect for Mr. Abe’s views on North Korea. In two days of meetings — alone and with their aides — the leaders are likely to discuss issues ranging from the demands Mr. Trump will make of Mr. Kim to the venue for the meeting.
Among the most politically salient issues for Mr. Abe is the status of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea. He is expected to ask Mr. Trump to raise the matter with Mr. Kim in their meeting, and a person briefed on the White House’s preparations said the president would probably assure Mr. Abe that he would do so.
Still, for Mr. Abe, who has been a stalwart supporter of Mr. Trump’s sanctions against North Korea, the summit meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim raises other problems. The first is that it leaves Japan isolated in what has been a round robin of diplomacy involving North Korea.
South Korea, China and the United States have all been in contact with the North about potential meetings. Japan has not. If anything, anti-Tokyo propaganda in North Korea has intensified as Mr. Kim has reached out to leaders in Seoul, Beijing and Washington.
Japan, moreover, has different security concerns than those of the United States. While Mr. Trump is likely to press Mr. Kim to halt development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, which could theoretically strike American territory, Japan is much more concerned about the North’s medium-range missiles, which have already landed in waters around Japan.
American officials declined to say whether Mr. Trump would raise the issue of intermediate-range missiles, repeating only his general demand that North Korea relinquish its nuclear arsenal.
“The coordination between the Japanese and the White House is excellent,” said Michael J. Green, a senior Asia adviser to President George W. Bush. “But the problem is that the president is so unpredictable.”
Mr. Trump’s treatment of Japan on trade is a case in point. He initially said he planned to impose metals tariffs on all nations to buoy a struggling American industry. But one by one, American allies, including Canada, Mexico, Australia, the European Union, Brazil and South Korea, were given exemptions to the tariffs — all except for Japan.
“That’s exactly what we want to ask the U. S.,” said Takehiro Shimada, a spokesman for the Japanese Embassy in Washington. “Why?”
Some analysts said it was a calculated attempt to gain leverage over Japan in coming trade negotiations.
“Logically, they should have excluded Japan. They didn’t,” said William Reinsch, an Asia trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They’re going to twist Abe’s arm when he shows up.”
When Mr. Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, he proposed a bilateral trade deal with Japan in its place. But Japan’s deputy prime minister, Taro Aso, ruled out that possibility in March, saying that such a negotiation would lead to unnecessary pain for Japan.
Instead, Japan forged ahead with a deal among the accord’s 11 remaining members, which they reached on March 8. Japan maintains that this agreement is still fragile, and that negotiating another pact with the United States could put its success at risk.
But Mr. Trump’s about-face on the Trans-Pacific Partnership could breathe new life into trade talks. Japan has said that it would be willing to enter a one-on-one deal only if it would serve as a bridge to the United States’ getting back into the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
“If you want to try to get the Japanese into talks,” Mr. Reinsch said, “I think the best way to do that is to tell them we’re prepped for rejoining the T. P. P.”
The Japanese responded to Mr. Trump’s statement about the trade pact with a mix of puzzlement and cautious optimism. American officials said they expected both the tariffs and the Trans-Pacific pact to come up during the meeting, and noted that Mr. Trump has indicated a willingness to grant further exemptions if he can come to agreeable terms.
The trouble could flare if Mr. Trump tries to strike a tougher deal with Japan than his predecessor did.
Japan is wary of the bullying approach the Trump administration has taken to revising global trade pacts.
