There’s no blue wave in sight, but Republicans still seem likely to lose control of the chamber after eight years.
Democrats are poised to narrowly win back control of the House of Representatives, ending eight years of Republican control and dealing President Trump a rebuke—but falling fall short of predictions of a sweeping Democratic victory.
With early results streaming in, Democratic candidates appeared to be leading in enough districts to win the chamber. The question now is how big the Democratic advantage will be when results from all races are in.
Among the early Democratic victories, Jennifer Wexton handily defeated Barbara Comstock in Northern Virginia’s 10th district race. Comstock is a longtime Republican soldier and the party poured millions of dollars into the race, but were unable to save the two-term representative. Elaine Luria also beat Scott Taylor in the Old Dominion’s 11th.
In Florida’s 27th district, former Secretary of Health and Human Services Donna Shalala defeated Maria Elvira Salazar. The district had been held by a retiring Republican, and while Shalala was a favorite, her slipping polling made Democrats nervous in the closing days of the race. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated Carlos Curbelo in Florida’s 26th district.
Pennsylvania has been a particular bright spot for Democrats. Earlier this year, the state supreme court ordered new congressional districts to be drawn, saying the old maps constituted an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. The new maps were far more favorable to Democrats, and they have capitalized. Mary Gay Scanlon won in the 5th district, a substantially new constituency. Also in Pennsylvania, Representative Conor Lamb is expected to defeat Representative Keith Rothfus in a new district that double-bunked the members. Chrissy Houlahan won the 5 th district, vacated by retiring member Ryan Costello. Susan Wild won the 7 th, held by Charlie Dent, who is also retiring. However, Republican Guy Reschenthaler won the 14 th.
In Colorado’s 6th, Jason Crow is on track to defeat Mike Coffman, a Trump-skeptical Republican. In Michigan’s 11 th district, an open seat held by a retiring Republican, Haley Stevens won. In Minnesota’s 3 rd, Erik Paulsen, a veteran Republican, lost to Dean Phillips. Mikie Sherrill has won in New Jersey’s 11 th district, formerly held by retiring Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen. Democrats have also triumphed in some more exotic locales. In Kansas’s 3 rd district, Sharice Davids beat Kevin Yoder. And on Staten Island, a GOP stronghold in deep-blue New York City, Max Rose unseated Dan Donovan, a Trump-supported candidate who survived a primary challenge this year.
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Democrats also lead in a range of other contested races. But the early results suggest that the party will have to eke out a majority with district-by-district races, rather than relying on a wave of wins. For example, Amy McGrath failed to unseat Andy Barr in a much-watched Kentucky race. Even if they win the majority, the night represents a serious disappointment for the party.
The Republican losses are in line with both historical precedent and most predictions. The president’s party typically loses seats during midterm elections—though Trump had spoken boldly of defeating the pattern—and Democratic voters had shown surprising strength in special elections since 2016. By the eve of voting, the leading analysts all expected a Democratic edge. The question was, and remains, how large it would be.
While every race has its own specific circumstances, there’s no mistaking the major factor in the Democratic win: Donald Trump. The president said he was on the ballot, and voters appear to have agreed, according to exit polls. While Democrats wrestled with how to speak about him on the campaign trail and in ads, his influence is visible in the results. Democrats competed in districts that Trump won handily in 2016, including in the Rust Belt and even in deep-red Texas. Preliminary data show that turnout was exceptionally high among minorities and youth voters compared to recent midterm elections. In some cases, Trump’s personality and style were a factor. In others, his policies, especially his attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, proved a powerful issue for Democratic candidates. Republican turnout was up as well, which helps to explain the muted Democratic results.
During the summer of 2016, Trump was predicting a “red wave,” in retort to predictions of a “blue wave,” though as election day approached, he backed off that prediction, telling the Associated Press in October that he would not accept blame if Republicans lost the House, and saying this week that he was concentrating on preserving the GOP edge in the Senate, acknowledging the prospect of losing the House.
The Democratic win calls into question Trump’s strategy of hammering on immigration as a wedge issue in the closing weeks of the campaign. While the issue is catnip to his base, his divisive and dark rhetoric wasn’t effective in rallying Republicans to the polls in numbers great enough to preserve their majority.
The Democratic victory ends a brief period of unified Republican control of government, including the White House, the House, the Senate, and effectively the Supreme Court as well. The House has been in Republican hands since the 2010 Tea Party wave. As The Washington Post notes, it’s the third time control of the chamber has flipped in the last 12 years, a level of vacillation not seen since the immediate post-World War II period.
Republicans hand over the gavel with a decidedly mixed record. They successfully stymied much of President Barack Obama’s agenda from 2011 on, but they largely failed to further conservative priorities. Federal spending continues to grow; entitlements have not been cut; Obamacare remains in place, though scaled back; and after aiming for a tax-code overhaul, they had to settle for temporary tax cuts. Much of that class of 2010 has left the House or is leaving this year, and the party is also losing its leader. Wisconsin’s Paul Ryan, hailed as one of the party’s brightest young thinkers, was reluctantly thrust into the speakership, but opted to retire this year, apparently tired of being caught between the unpredictable and often outrageous president and a fractious caucus.
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It’s likely that the Democratic leader, at least initially, will be a familiar face: former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Although a growing number of Democrats have chafed against her leadership, and some won election this year promising not to vote for her, she remains the heavy favorite to reclaim the gavel—at least to begin. Pelosi has been eager to reclaim the speakership, after serving in that role from 2007 to 2011, but has said she is likely to be a “transitional” leader, paving the way for a new Democratic speaker in the near future.
