If having a surplus of playoff contenders is key to an exciting finish of an NFL regular season, then the next month could really deliver. ..
If having a surplus of playoff contenders is key to an exciting finish of an NFL regular season, then the next month could really deliver.
While divisional races appear less suspenseful than normal — sports books have taken down half of the division futures as a byproduct of the AFC West and NFC East being the only leagues without a team currently holding a 1-game lead — contenders galore exist for wild-card spots.
Six AFC teams are currently within one game of the final wild-card spot. Five NFC teams are separated by 1.5 games or less for two wild-card berths.
Meaningful matchups always produce more betting action, and barring several major surges and collapses, there will be plenty leading up to the playoffs.
Talking Points hopes it can land on the right side of most of them, with pressure mounting off a poor 5-10 Week 12 performance picking every game against the spread. The blog’s overall record for the year stands at 90-76-9.
Read below for this week’s picks, separated into confidence categories with attached records as always. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
Plays (18-20-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars plus-4 vs. Indianapolis Colts Taking a small step back might be necessary before fully burying Jacksonville as one of the most helpless teams in the NFL. Yes, the Jaguars have lost seven straight but the last four have all come by six points or less. That includes a 29-26 defeat against Indianapolis where they were a smaller underdog, plus-3, in this same matchup on the road.
Cleveland Browns plus-6 at Houston Texans Browns’ power rating is weighed down by early-season performance but they’ve looked like a different team since the firing of Hue Jackson and promotion of Gregg Williams to interim coach, with their only loss coming to the Chiefs. The 8-3 Texans remain the most overachieving team in the NFL as Football Outsiders calculates their expected wins at 6.4.
New York Jets plus-8 at Tennessee Titans By the vast majority of metrics, these teams are evenly matched, including yards per play where they’re dead-even on defense and the Titans are .
