With a crucial vote in Parliament looming on Dec. 11, the odds are stacked against the prime minister. At this point, a narrow loss may seem like a win.
Facing a critical vote by British lawmakers on her plans for leaving the European Union, or Brexit, the question for Prime Minister Theresa May seems to be not whether she will lose but by how much.
Britain’s Parliament is gripped by a mood of anxiety and suppressed excitement at the prospect of a grave political crisis that looms if, as analysts expect, Mrs. May fails to persuade lawmakers to support her Brexit plan.
If she loses the vote on Dec. 11th, it will be a significant moment for Mrs. May and her country, and the margin could be crucial. A crushing defeat could force Mrs. May to abandon her deal, crash her government or face a bitter power struggle that could oust her from Downing Street.
A more modest loss could keep Mrs. May in the game, perhaps playing to her well known strengths of persistence and dogged determination, and allowing her to return to hold a second parliamentary vote.
In that scenario, Mrs. May might renegotiate small parts of her agreement in Brussels while her party whips at home threaten and cajole rebels. Then some opposition lawmakers would need to be persuaded to vote for her plan for fear of a disastrous exit without any deal.
“Although there are no rules about the scale of defeats, if May loses by more than 40 to 50 votes, her deal would be dead,” though she could perhaps try to negotiate a different type of exit, wrote Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director, Europe, for the Eurasia Group. “If her loss is sizable, say more than 100, and she plowed on with it, the cabinet and/or Tory backbenchers would probably take matters into their hands.”
Some analysts see Dec. 11 as an opportunity for a protest vote and something of a practice run before things get really serious.
“Don’t count May out yet,” wrote Kallum Pickering, a senior economist at Berenberg bank in London, who said that while many members of Parliament dislike her Brexit plan, they have several different reasons.
