Look for “Roma” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” to win big in a tight race
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: “Black Panther” “BlacKkKlansman” “Bohemian Rhapsody” “The Favourite” “Green Book” “Roma” “A Star Is Born” “Vice”
This race is wide open. My gut says “Roma,” while my head says when in doubt go with the Producers Guild winner, which is “Green Book.”
Predicted winner: “Roma”
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma” Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite” Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman” Adam McKay, “Vice” Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
This isn’t quite a lock, because Spike Lee has never won a competitive Oscar.
Predicted winner: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Christian Bale, “Vice” Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born” Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate” Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Malek is the clear favorite, maybe because nobody really wants to spend two hours with Dick Cheney, no matter how good Bale is at personifying the former vice president.
Predicted winner: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma” Glenn Close, “The Wife” Olivia Colman, “The Favourite” Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born” Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
One person who can spoil Close’s fairy-tale ending: “The Favourite” star Olivia Colman, whose delicious performance was in a different category at the Globes, and who went on to beat Close at the BAFTAs.
Predicted winner: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman” Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born” Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Ali’s grace and gravitas has remained unscathed even as “Green Book” has come under fire on various fronts.
Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Amy Adams, “Vice” Marina de Tavira, “Roma” Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk” Emma Stone, “The Favourite” Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
This is probably a very close race between King and Weisz, with de Tavira as a possible spoiler.
Predicted winner: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: “The Favourite” “First Reformed” “Green Book” “Roma” “Vice”
“The Favourite” is the kind of thing the Academy likes in this category: smart and sassy with lots of words.
Predicted winner: “The Favourite”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” “BlacKkKlansman” “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” “If Beale Street Could Talk” “A Star Is Born”
If voters aren’t going to give Spike Lee the Best Director or Best Picture Oscars (and they probably aren’t), here’s an easy place to recognize the guy and salute a vital piece of work.
