Remember when University of Maryland Baltimore County upset Virginia in 2018? No one saw that coming. It was the first time a No. 1 seed…
Remember when University of Maryland Baltimore County upset Virginia in 2018?
No one saw that coming. It was the first time a No. 1 seed ever lost to a No. 16 seed in the men’s NCAA tournament.
It would have been a gutsy pick in an office pool. But gutsy picks that actually happen provide all the glory that March Madness is about.
Here’s a look at 10 predictions for this year’s tournament.
1. Duke doesn’t win the national championship. Now that Zion Williamson is back and the Blue Devils looked the part of the title favorite (claiming the ACC tournament title), it will be difficult to pick against this high-octane No. 1 seed. That’s because Williamson changes the game’s tempo in a variety of ways and teammate R. J. Barrett is arguably a better national player of the year candidate for his playmaking. But here’s a secret: This team isn’t that great at shooting. Cam Reddish is, but he’s streaky. The team as a whole shoots 30 percent from beyond the arc (ranking 339th of 353 Division 1 teams). So, if a team plays zone, as Gonzaga and Syracuse did in two regular season losses on Duke’s résumé, an upset is doable (looking at you, Tom Izzo).
It’s not to say this Duke team isn’t one of the most talented teams in college basketball history. But the single-elimination NCAA tournament isn’t always kind to powerhouse teams. Just ask Kentucky in 2015. The Wildcats were heavily favored to win that national title and hadn’t lost a single game before Wisconsin pulled off a tournament shocker. The team to win that year? Duke. Karma is coming back, Blue Devils.
2. Virginia wins the national title. The Cavaliers’ loss to Florida State in the ACC tournament semifinals felt eerily similar to last year’s historic first-round upset loss to UMBC. And you’ll hear over and over again about Virginia being a boring pick and criticism that they’re not athletic enough to win the whole thing. That’s not exactly wrong, but the fact that UVA has the nation’s best defense (it’s not even close, allowing 55 points a game), and is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the entire tournament are also facts. More than that, this team has hidden motivation that speaks more volumes than Xs and Os. Prior to the season, All-American Kyle Guy told USA TODAY Sports: “A lot of people think a Final Four would (erase last year). A national championship is the only way to shut everyone up.”
3. Another No. 16 beats a No. 1. Oh but if Virginia doesn’t give us a historic upset, what No. 1 can? Gonzaga. The ‘Zags have the nation’s most explosive offense, averaging 89 points a game. They also were the first team to beat Duke and the selection committee seemed to think that win was worth four wins when seeding them. But if there’s one thing the West Coast tournament final showed us, it’s that anything is possible when a team’s not ready.
