Matchups for the West play-in and the opening round of the postseason are set. Here’s are stats and predictions for 17 teams still standing inside the bubble.
After 66 scrimmages and more than 80 seeding games — and plenty of fishing — the matchups for the 2020 NBA playoffs are finally set. And in an unprecedented atmosphere that could negate the benefits of home-court advantage, we could be in for another wild two months inside Disney’s ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, Florida. Which teams will find a spark and make a magical run? Which stars will emerge in the bubble? Our experts are breaking down all 17 teams still fighting for a championship, including each team’s bubble MVP, biggest questions and most intriguing matchups. Note: Vegas odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Statistics provided by ESPN Stats & Information research. MORE: What to expect when the Blazers face the Grizzlies Jump to a series: East: Bucks-Magic| Raptors-Nets| Celtics-76ers| Heat-Pacers| West: Lakers-Blazers/Grizz| Clips-Mavs| Nuggets-Jazz| Rockets-Thunder 1. Milwaukee Bucks Record: 56-17 (.767)| Bubble: 3-5 Basketball Power Index (BPI) odds vs. ORL: 95% Vegas title odds: +300 The NBA-best Bucks have been mediocre at best inside the bubble. Injuries and unforeseen experiences contributed to those subpar contests, but the goal remains intact: win a title for the first time since 1971. MVP of the restart: Giannis Antetokounmpo Every time No.34 suits up for the Bucks, he’s the best player in uniform. That was no different inside the bubble, as the reigning MVP displayed his ability, particularly against Boston in the opening game, with 36 points,15 rebounds and 7 assists. Antetokounmpo did, however, let his emotions get the better of him in the final seeding games, and was ejected — and later given a one-game suspension — for head-butting the Washington Wizards Moritz Wagner. Antetokounmpo will have to keep his emotions in check as teams become more physical in an attempt to throw him off his square. That might be the only way to slow him down. Biggest concern and how they address it Will the Bucks be able to stop the 3-pointer? Defending the paint is no issue for the Bucks, with Antetokounmpo and Brook and Robin Lopez in the middle. But they give up far too many treys, which seems to be the recipe to beat the NBA’s best squad. On a per-game basis, the Bucks gave up the most 3s made and attempted in league history. Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe will have to show up on the perimeter in a major way. One big bubble stat Prior to the season coming to a halt, the Bucks boasted a league-leading defensive efficiency of 101.6. The difference between Milwaukee and second-place Toronto was the same as between Toronto and seventh-place Indiana. But the defense hasn’t been the same in the bubble for Milwaukee, as the Bucks rank 8th since the restart (110.2). Matchup to watch in Round 1: Four games vs. five games The Magic haven’t offered much for the Bucks to be fearful of this season. They will need some Disney magic to avoid a Milwaukee sweep, even with unofficial home-court advantage. Orlando is winless (0-4) against the Bucks in four contests and will be playing without Jonathan Isaac (torn ACL), who would’ve been its best chance of slowing down Antetokounmpo. One wild bubble prediction The Bucks bring home the city’s first title since Motown ruled the charts. The 2020 NBA Finals MVP? Look no further than Walt Disney World superfans Brook and Robin Lopez, who share the award inside the bubble. After all, it is the place where dreams come true. — Eric Woodyard 8. Orlando Magic Record: 33-40 (.452)| Bubble: 3-5 BPI odds vs. MIL: 5% Vegas title odds: +50000 Walt Disney World has not been the happiest place on Earth for the hometown Magic. Jonathan Isaac tore his left ACL — changing the franchise’s present and future in the process. They’ve dealt with several injuries in the bubble and struggled to find any rhythm after a hot start. Their pre-stoppage season featured similar highs and lows — but Isaac’s injury is the low point for a team in desperate need of a star. Answer questions on the NBA playoffs and compete for $30,000 of guaranteed prizes! Make Your Picks MVP of the restart: Nikola Vucevic Big man Vucevic has been a model of consistency for this team for years and continued to provide stability for this beleaguered Magic group. He has been the most durable player for a team that has seen its fortunes shift hard after the restart. Vucevic’s ability to chip in 20 points and 10 rebounds almost every night is the greatest asset the group has at the moment. Biggest concern and how they address it The Magic play hard and they’re coached well by Steve Clifford — they just don’t have the firepower or the depth to match up with the Bucks, a team that has averaged an NBA-best 118.7 points per game. Isaac was supposed to provide a big defensive lift, but now it will be crucial for Vucevic and Aaron Gordon to rise to the occasion on both ends of the floor and try to control the pace as much as possible along with veteran guard Evan Fournier. One big bubble stat The Magic got off to a 2-0 start in the bubble but proceeded to lose five straight in part to their poor 3-point shooting. During the losing streak, they shot 30% from 3. Prior to the hiatus, Orlando shot 34% from 3,25th in the league. Matchup to watch in Round 1: Markelle Fultz vs. Eric Bledsoe Aside from “Everybody vs. Giannis,” I’m interested to see how the Fultz-Bledsoe guard matchup plays out. Bledsoe is one of the better defensive guards in the league and should pose a huge challenge to the former No.1 overall pick. Fultz has a chance to open eyes in the bubble and show that his improvement throughout the season was not a flash of unfulfilled promise. The key for Fultz — as always — is how he shoots away from the rim. After starting 4-for-4 from 3-point land in the bubble, he finished just 2-for-12 as teams repeatedly sagged off of him. One wild bubble prediction The Magic push the Bucks to six games, an impressive feat given how many issues Clifford’s group has endured. Realistically, the organization needs to make sure nobody else gets seriously hurt and hope for better days in the future. — Nick Friedell 2. Toronto Raptors Record: 52-19 (.732)| Bubble: 6-1 BPI odds vs. BKN: 86% Vegas title odds: +1100 Toronto was the first team to arrive in Florida in June and hopes to be the last team to leave in October. The Raptors’ only goal for the seeding games was to stay healthy, which they did. MVP of the restart: Marc Gasol showed up at training camp in Florida in terrific shape and looked really good when he was on the court during the seeding games, helping Toronto form the league’s best defense during the restart. The Raptors will need Gasol to continue playing at that kind of level at the defensive end if they hope to make it through the postseason and repeat as champions again this year. Biggest concern and how they address it A lack of offensive punch in the half court. Toronto has been remarkable defensively, with a roster full of physical and smart players who play on a string at all times. But where the Raptors can run into trouble is at the other end, particularly when teams can take away their elite transition game. Toronto can get stagnant in the half court, which leads to it needing some 3-pointers to fall. If Toronto goes cold from deep, it could get into trouble against the league’s better teams. One big bubble stat The Raptors’ defense did travel to Orlando, leading all teams since the restart with a defensive efficiency of 101.8 (no other team is better than 106.4). Prior to the season coming to a halt, the Raptors ranked second. Something to monitor is their turnovers — they lead all teams in the bubble with 18.7 per game. Matchup to watch in Round 1: Raptors vs. themselves The Nets are a shell of the team they are supposed to be, with several players on their active roster not in Florida at all for the restart. Toronto should have no trouble dispatching them in four games — and needs to. Because of the compact nature of this year’s playoff schedule, every extra game played will take its toll — and that’s especially true for a team with as many veteran players as the Raptors. This is a series that should end quickly. Toronto needs it to. One wild bubble prediction OG Anunoby, whose offensive game has taken a step forward this season, will score 30 points in a playoff game — a total he reached exactly once this season. — Tim Bontemps 7. Brooklyn Nets Record: 35-37 (.486)| Bubble: 5-3 BPI odds vs. TOR: 14% Vegas title odds: +100000 Arriving with little hope after losing virtually all their starters, the Nets shocked everyone by going 5-3 in seeding games to lock up the No.7 seed in the East. MVP of the restart: Caris LeVert With Brooklyn’s two primary shot creators (Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyrie Irving) both sidelined, LeVert took on a superstar-level usage rate (35%, fourth highest among players with at least 100 minutes behind Devin Booker, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic). While he wasn’t particularly efficient in that role (.523 true shooting percentage), LeVert kept teammates from the uncomfortable role of having to create their own offense and averaged a team-high 6.2 assists per game. Biggest concern and how they address it Can the Nets pull off an upset against a motivated opponent? Yes, Brooklyn beat both the Bucks and LA Clippers in seeding games, but those teams were sitting key players and had nothing to play for from a seeding standpoint. The challenge will be more formidable against the locked-in Raptors, who posted the league’s best defensive rating in seeding games after ranking second in the regular season. One big bubble stat The Nets have been lighting up the scoreboard in the bubble. They kicked off the restart by scoring at least 115 points in six consecutive games, the longest such streak in team history. Matchup to watch in Round 1: LeVert vs. Toronto’s defense In OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, the Raptors have a pair of strong individual defenders to throw at LeVert with the size and quickness to make his life difficult. Even when LeVert can draw a switch, Toronto doesn’t have a defensive weak link in its starting five. Against the Raptors’ defense, LeVert’s efficiency might fall below the point where his ability to sop up possessions is a net positive for Brooklyn. One wild bubble prediction Jamal Crawford, who looked good in his brief first action this season before suffering a hamstring strain, returns and beats his playoff career high of 32 points. — Kevin Pelton 3. Boston Celtics Record: 48-24 (.667)| Bubble: 5-3 BPI odds vs. PHI: 71% Vegas title odds: +1100 Boston entered the bubble hoping to get All-Star guard Kemba Walker healthy and be properly prepared for the playoffs when they began. They have gone 2-for-2. MVP of the restart: Kemba Walker The pick here is Walker — not because he was dominant, but because he was healthy. There was a lot of concern in Boston when Walker’s balky left knee, a huge problem for him in the weeks before the season shutdown in March, flared up again during individual workouts in Boston in June. But Walker has looked terrific when he’s been on the court in Florida, something the Celtics will need to continue if they want to make it out of the Eastern Conference and back to the NBA Finals for the first time in a decade. Biggest concern and how they address it The main issue for the Celtics going into the playoffs is their lack of size, and how they’ll slow down their opponents’ advantage inside. Boston’s theoretical path to the NBA Finals goes through the Philadelphia 76ers (Joel Embiid), the Toronto Raptors (Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka) and the Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez). Daniel Theis has been a revelation this season for the Celtics replacing Al Horford, but he isn’t big enough to bang with big centers. This is why Robert Williams has gotten more and more playing time during the seeding games. Expect him to get a chance to play in the playoffs. One big bubble stat Walker is working his way back to game form, and while his scoring output isn’t there (13.8 points per game in the bubble,21.2 before the hiatus), he’s certainly been efficient shooting the ball. He is shooting 47.9% from the floor and 41.4% from deep since the restart, compared to 42% from the floor and 38% from 3 before the hiatus. Matchup to watch in Round 1: Joel Embiid vs. Boston’s entire team The Celtics had mixed results against Embiid in three regular-season matchups: He was held to 11 points and five rebounds on 1-for-11 shooting on Feb.1 but torched Boston for 38 points and 13 rebounds on Dec.12. The Sixers’ All-Star big has the ability to single-handedly wreck Boston’s title ambitions, but the Celtics will likely send plenty of double-teams Embiid’s way to goad Philly’s suspect outside shooting into trying to beat them. One wild bubble prediction Williams, who has barely played during the regular season — mainly due to injury — will wind up supplanting Enes Kanter in Boston’s rotation — and could potentially swing a game for the Celtics as a result. — Bontemps 6. Philadelphia 76ers Record: 42-30 (.583)| Bubble: 3-4 BPI odds vs. BOS: 29% Vegas title odds: +5000 As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s like deja vu all over again.” Ben Simmons is out for the season after knee surgery, Joel Embiid has left multiple games with injuries, and the Sixers enter the playoffs less than the sum of their parts. MVP of the restart: Joel Embiid can be an enigma, but he’s clearly one of the league’s best and most dominant players. Without Simmons on the floor, Philly can try to maximize the amount of shooting that’s out there — and, in turn, give Embiid as much room to operate as possible. Against Boston, in particular, Embiid could be dominant enough to swing the series by himself. Biggest concern and how they address it Philadelphia is still trying to adjust to life without Simmons, and figuring that out on the fly won’t be easy — especially against the Celtics, a deep, talented and versatile team.
