Blue.
Late numbers are finally trickling in today in NV, which has the smallest number of electoral votes of any state still on the board but remains important in a few scenarios. I’ll give you Jon Ralston’s take on the latest round of ballots and then we’ll do some electoral math. Looks like Trump and his base of working-class whites — and Latinos, to a lesser extent — made a real ballgame of it in Nevada. But they’ll fall just short. Biden is up by 11.4K right now in NV. Dems are going to win these mail ballots coming in from Election Day and yesterday — 63K. And they should win them decisively. That leaves 60K provisionals, which have been evenly split. I see no path left for Trump here. Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 5,2020 Ryan Matsumoto, an analyst at Inside Elections, also now rates Nevada as highly likely to go to Biden. Why does a state with six EVs matter? Because, of the five states left to be called — Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — Biden might actually need those six votes to get over the hump. Right now he has 253 in the bank thanks to his flips of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska’s Second District. He needs 17 more. If he takes Nevada, he needs 11. Arizona has 11 electoral votes. North Carolina has 15. Georgia has 16. Pennsylvania has 20. In other words, Nevada plus any single state makes Biden the winner. *Without* Nevada, neither AZ, NC, or GA alone could get him over the hump. His best showing among them would be a 269-269 tie if he won Georgia and nothing else. Nevada officially puts him one state away, anywhere on the map. But you’ve probably noticed from the math that there’s one scenario in which Biden wins even without Nevada. That’s if he takes Pennsylvania — and right now, Pennsylvania is looking fairly solidly blue. Biden still trails in the official count but there are hundreds of thousands of mail ballots left out there from heavily blue counties that should break overwhelmingly for him. In fact, from tracking the chatter among election nerds this morning, it sounds like Biden has a better chance to take PA than he does Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina. And if he takes PA, that’s the end. No matter what else happens anywhere. Nate Cohn: So far, Mr. Biden has been winning absentee votes,77 percent to 22 percent, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. At that pace, he needs only 288,000 more mail votes before taking the lead. By my count, there are about 500,000 mail ballots left.
