NOAA’s annual mid-season Atlantic Hurricane season outlook indicates the tropics have no plans of letting up, regardless of the recent lull in activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has doubled down on its initial seasonal forecast issued in May by announcing Wednesday that the season will continue to be above-average. Forecaster’s confidence has increased and the probability of an above-normal season has risen from 60% to 65%, leaving only a 10% probability of a below-normal season and a 25% probability of a normal season. The latest projections call for 15-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), while the initial seasonal outlook forecast was 13-20. This includes the five named storms so far this season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center also predicts seven to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), while the initial forecast called for six to 10. Of those predicted hurricanes, three to five are forecast to be major (Category 3,4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or greater), which remains unchanged from their previous outlook. « There is a 15% chance that the season could end with higher or lower averages than what they are forecasting, » says Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The tropics are already starting to wake up after a recent lull in activity.
