What’s the problem? As much as Californians don’t like Democrats, they really hate Republicans.
The recall was never going to be close. It closed out election night losing by around 30 percentage points. As the days went by, that narrowed slightly. I know what a few polls said, but many more said otherwise. Maybe it should have been closer, but still not close. And that’s not because of voter fraud, not because of ballot harvesting, not because of the media or any of the other common scapegoats. It’s because Californians loath Republicans. Harsh, I know — I’m a Republican and I hate writing it. But don’t take my word for it, simply listen to our fellow Californians. Republicans continue to get blasted in statewide elections. And in down-ballot partisan races, like congressional and legislative, the long-term trend shows Republican elected officials continuing to slip away. And as for Republican voters, the registration numbers speak for themselves. Californians are talking loudly, why aren’t Republicans listening? Republicans used to thrive in California. Republicans were governors for most of the 20th century and were elected statewide regularly. Over time though, the state changed in many ways, few of which were helpful to the Republican cause, and instead of adapting and becoming a viable alternative to Democrats that works for California, Republicans have increasingly gone in the opposite direction of the state. In public polling, Republicans are usually on the wrong side of the top issues from the majority of Californians. COVID and the environment are perfect examples where Californians want one thing, and Republicans want something completely different. Many of my fellow Republicans think things will snap back sooner or later once Californians get sick of one party rule. Quaint, but probably not going to happen. First, there’s the problem of voter registration — it doesn’t mean everything, but partisanship is one of the best predictors of voter behavior. Republicans are around one quarter of the electorate. In 2003, a month before former Gov. Gray Davis was recalled, Republicans were 11 percentage points higher. That’s a huge drop. But in raw numbers, it’s even more pronounced. Since 2003, the deficit has grown from approximately 1.3 million voters to almost 5 million — Democrats basically outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.
