According to the latest US intelligence assessment, Russia now has close to 75% of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine, a US official with direct knowledge of the intelligence told CNN.
According to the latest US intelligence assessment, Russia now has close to 75% of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine, a US official with direct knowledge of the intelligence told CNN. The concentration of forces within striking distance of Ukraine is highly unusual and part of the reason the US believes Russia is ready to attack, the official said. This includes some 120 of Russia’s total estimated 160 Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs which are positioned within 60km of Ukraine, according to the official. While that figure represents 75% of Russia’s principal combat units, it is less than half of the total troops in the Russian military. US officials have reported that Russian troops combined with separatist forces could be as high as 190,000 deployed around Ukraine. Some 35 of 50 known air defense battalions are deployed against Ukraine. In addition, the US estimates some 500 fighter and fighter-bomber aircraft are within range of Ukraine, as well as 50 medium to heavy bombers. Together, the Russian forces now vastly outnumber Ukrainian military forces, according to the assessment. To note: CNN cannot independently verify the intelligence. On Thursday, the British Ministry of Defense tweeted an assessment that said, “Russia has over half of its ground combat power near the Ukrainian border.” President Sauli Niinistö of Finland told CNN Sunday that the world is “almost in a colder situation” than the actual Cold War era as tensions between the US and Moscow have reached a boiling point amid fears Russia will invade Ukraine. President Biden has said he is convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, with his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, telling CNN on Sunday that the “playbook” for invasion is moving forward. Recent shelling in eastern Ukraine and a vehicle blast in separatist-held Donbas has raised fears that Putin could be inciting violence to justify an invasion. When asked if he thought an invasion would happen, Niinistö told CNN there were three possibilities. “First one is that somehow they could settle the issue of eastern Ukraine, Minsk agreement and all that. I think it’s far away. Then second option is that we will see a full-scale war,” he said. “And the third one, which is as bad, is that we see this kind of, like I described, two steps forward, one back, that is increasing tensions all the time. And the third one might at the moment, I would say, that might be the nearest one at least.” President Sauli Niinistö of Finland said Sunday that he is not afraid his country could be next as Russian President Vladimir Putin increases military buildup around Ukraine.
