The 2022 World Series is history, so we’re looking ahead to what’s in store for all 30 teams next season.
It’s time for the offseason! Which means it’s time for our annual way-too-early 2023 power rankings.
The 2022 season came to an end on Saturday night in Houston, as the Astros won their second World Series title since 2017 after defeating the Phillies in Game 6. What do the next few months have in store for the victors of the Fall Classic?
Let’s take stock of where all 30 teams stand right now as we head into what should be an exciting and intriguing free agency — I mean, I hope a dude who hit 62 home runs and is a free agent gets you excited about this offseason.
Final 2022 power rankings
2022 record: 106-56 (first in the AL West)
2022 final ranking: 2
With nearly the entire roster coming back for 2023, Houston’s incredible pitching depth makes the Astros a pretty easy call here. They allowed the fewest runs in a full season in the American League in the DH era (since 1973). Justin Verlander does have a $25 million player option, and even if he opts out and signs elsewhere, the Astros will still have the best pitching depth in the majors — especially with a full season from Lance McCullers Jr. and Hunter Brown, who copied Verlander’s delivery while growing up in Michigan, ready to step into a significant role.
The Astros even have some flexibility in the payroll to make a big addition. Given that Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are free agents after 2024, maybe they’ll be looking for a long-term power bat. You know, perhaps even a certain New York Yankees outfielder …
2022 record: 101-61 (first in the NL East)
2022 final ranking: 4
The Astros weren’t quite a slam dunk for the top spot, however, as the Braves dominated the final four months of the regular season to capture their fifth straight division title. The emergence of center fielder Michael Harris II and starters Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright raised this team to another level. Now picture a lineup with Ronald Acuna Jr. completely healthy again if he rediscovers his power stroke — he hit just 15 home runs in 119 games this season — after 2021’s knee surgery. Shortstop Dansby Swanson heads into free agency after his best season, and if he doesn’t return, maybe the Braves turn to Vaughn Grissom, who impressed playing second base down the stretch.
Bottom line: With Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Acuna and now Harris and Strider all signed well into the future, the Braves are going to compete for National League pennants for a long time.
2022 record: 89-73
2022 final ranking: 10
This might be a little ambitious since the Padres have some holes to fill in the rotation and at first base, but consider:
They have three MVP-caliber talents in Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr., with Tatis now set to return from his PED suspension on April 20.
They have elite defenders up the middle in center fielder Trent Grisham and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, which could push Tatis to the outfield.
Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and Nick Martinez are all back to anchor the bullpen, although maybe Martinez shifts to the rotation.
They should have about $20 million to spend to add a starter and/or a first baseman.
Yes, there are concerns: Soto didn’t hit for much power after the trade, Tatis’ wrist needs to be healthy and the 40-man position player depth is thin. But if Soto and Tatis play to what we’ve seen in the past? Watch out.
2022 record: 86-76 (third in AL East)
2022 final ranking: 9
They won 86 games (tied for 12th in the majors), they struggled to score runs all season and then scored just one run in 24 innings in the wild-card series loss to Cleveland. So why are they ranked so high here? Yes, pitching, pitching and more pitching … but also because of this little factoid: According to @ManGamesLostMLB, the Rays had the fourth-most missed games by injured players (behind the Reds, Nationals and Cubs). And many of those were key injuries.
For starters, they’ll add Tyler Glasnow, who returned in September from Tommy John surgery, to a rotation of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs — and those three quietly combined for a 2.61 ERA (although former top prospect Shane Baz will miss 2023 after his own Tommy John surgery). The offense has to improve and it will, starting with Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco, who combined for just 148 games and 14 home runs.
2022 record: 111-51
2022 final ranking: 1
Most wins in the NL since the 1906 Cubs. Highest run differential since the 1939 Yankees. Led the majors in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed. And then, a brutal four-game loss to the Padres in the division series that left Dodgers fans crying that it was their most painful postseason defeat yet. Of course, you don’t go from 111 wins to pumpkins overnight, but the Dodgers do have several key agents to replace or re-sign: Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney — and Walker Buehler is out for the season. That’s 14.1 combined WAR and 76 starts.
Then there is the question of gearing up and doing it all over again. So far, that hasn’t been an issue for this group, but maybe one of these years they’ll slog through the first three months. They do have money to spend, with a current estimated payroll about $119 million less than 2022’s, according to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource (and that includes an estimated $18 million for Cody Bellinger, whom they could non-tender).
Of course, this ranking could go up by the time spring training rolls around and the Dodgers have signed Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa and Edwin Diaz.
2022 record: 87-75 (third in the NL East)
2022 final ranking: 11
Will the playoff run carry over into 2023? Maybe we’re giving too much emphasis to what happened in October, but this was certainly a better team under manager Rob Thomson than it was under former skipper Joe Girardi. All the core players return, although we’ll have to see if Bryce Harper needs Tommy John surgery to repair the injured elbow that limited him to DH duties.
Look for the Phillies to be aggressive once again in free agency. They could turn down the $17 million club option on Jean Segura, move Bryson Stott to second base and go after one of the big free-agent shortstops: Correa, Turner, Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. I like what Brandon Marsh will give them on defense in center field. And keep an eye on Andrew Painter, the team’s first-round pick in 2021 who cruised through three levels of the minors in 2022 and could join the rotation at some point in 2023 as a 20-year-old.
2022 record: 86-76 (second in the NL Central)
2022 final ranking: 13
In the end, the Brewers fell one game short of the Phillies for the final playoff spot, and you can’t help but wonder how that script plays out if they don’t trade Josh Hader. Still, the Brewers are in a good position, especially with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff heading the rotation. They hope to get more than 78 innings from Freddy Peralta, and young lefty Aaron Ashby has breakout potential after fanning 126 in 107 1/3 innings.
They also have an influx of young outfielders ready to make an impact in 2023: Garrett Mitchell (who already reached the majors), Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick. The Brewers were second in the NL in home runs, so they play the modern power game, even though the Christian Yelich contract has turned into a financial drain. A big key for the upcoming season is finding the right bullpen depth behind closer Devin Williams.
2022 record: 92-70
2022 final ranking: 7
The Jays won 92 games, were second in the AL in runs and Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman were a great one-two punch in the rotation, but the season still left an air of “we thought they would be better than this.” Maybe that’s because they went 16-3 against the Red Sox while struggling to score runs against the Yankees and Rays.
Their biggest obstacle moving forward is they’re paying Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu and Yusei Kikuchi a combined $46 million in 2023. That trio combined for a 5.26 ERA in 2022, with Ryu likely to miss most of next season after Tommy John surgery. Do the Jays count on better seasons from Berrios and Kikuchi or make an addition to the rotation? The offense and Manoah/Gausman might still make them the division favorites, and the payroll already sits at $215 million, but imagine this team with Carlos Rodon as the No. 3 starter.
2022 record: 93-69 (first in the NL Central)
2022 final ranking: 6
With 15 consecutive winning seasons, it’s hard to place the Cardinals much lower than this, even with concerns about the starting pitching — although it helps that Adam Wainwright announced that he will not be joining Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols in retirement.
The Cardinals will likely figure out a way to keep Nolan Arenado from exercising his opt-out clause. They also have a wave of young position players who have reached the majors — Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera — or soon will, especially Jordan Walker, perhaps the best hitting prospect in the minors. Getting a bounce-back season from Tyler O’Neill is key, and Jack Flaherty is a wild card at this point, but adding another starter in free agency — or using the prospect depth for a trade — tops the to-do list.
2022 record: 90-72
2022 final ranking: 12
The Astros capped off an incredible postseason run with their second title since 2017.
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The Mariners finally ended their long playoff drought that stretched back to 2001, and Julio Rodriguez emerged as a star at age 21. They beat the Blue Jays in the wild-card series and played the Astros tough in the division series, despite being swept. What’s interesting is the perception that the Mariners were all pitching and no hitting, though T-Mobile Park kind of masks some of the team’s strengths.
