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All the Signs Trump's Hold on the GOP Is Waning

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Trump remains popular with GOP voters. But after a string of losses, some in the party are beginning to look at other options.
Former President Donald Trump announced Tuesday he was ready to lead Republicans to victory in 2024 after an underwhelming performance for his party in a midterm election cycle that they were otherwise expected to dominate.
However, all signs seem to indicate Trump’s grip over the Republican Party and its voters appears to be waning—even as he remains a popular figure within the party.
In the days following a disappointing midterm cycle for Republicans, top figures in the GOP and even close allies of the former president began sowing doubt about his viability as the party’s leader following three consecutive elections of underwhelming returns for conservatives. The main issue: that Trump’s take-no-prisoners approach that upended the political establishment six years ago is no longer compatible with today’s political landscape.
Numerous candidates he’d supported who bought wholesale into his bombastic style of politics and lies about a stolen election in 2020—New Hampshire Senate candidate Don Bolduc, Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters—lost races that some believed to be winnable, with party activists directly blaming their candidates and Trump himself for their poor performances with independent voters.
States with Republican governors, like Massachusetts and Maryland, turned over to Democratic control this fall after Republican candidates in Trump’s mold failed to match the moderate stylings of their Republican predecessors. In competitive districts, Republican Congressman Dan Newhouse—one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6 Capitol attack—won re-election to his seat in Washington’s 4th Congressional district last week while David Valadao, another Republican impeachment voter, was on track to hold onto his seat in California.
Meanwhile, more moderate candidates in New York and Oregon delivered on the promises of a “red wave” that dominated media coverage throughout the spring and fall, feeding claims Trump’s combative style did not necessarily amount to victory.
“One of the big lessons that the Republican Party nationally needs to take away from it is that voters want collaborative elected officials, they don’t want extremes,” Massachusetts’ outgoing Republican Governor, Charlie Baker, told CNN’s Jake Tapper Monday afternoon.
Republican leaders in other states—at least behind closed doors—were more direct in prescribing blame to the former president, citing his influence as turning off the key supporters Republicans need to compete with Democrats: namely, people with money and unmade minds on who to vote for.

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