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Upbeat is how Democrats in Washington and Georgia say they’re feeling today about the number 51.
If Georgia voters decide to send Sen. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic preacher, back to Washington next year and if GOP challenger Herschel Walker, the former Heisman Trophy winner who decided to try his hand at politics, loses today’s Senate runoff, as polls are hinting, Democrats gain a majority of 51 in January instead of 50, which amounts to a functioning majority that would deliver some political benefits.
Warnock, a reverend who serves as senior pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, the former pulpit of Martin Luther King Jr., knows plenty about close elections. He narrowly won a runoff in 2021 and he received more votes than Walker a month ago on Election Day but not enough to avoid a runoff because of a third-party candidate.
The Republican football legend, who was endorsed during the GOP Senate primary and general election by former President Trump, was battered by personal controversies throughout the campaign, and his ties to Trump may have hurt him more than helped during the past month, The Hill’s Hanna Trudo and Al Weaver write.
Warnock has barnstormed counties around Atlanta and worked to chip away at rural areas held by the GOP. He also stumped heavily during the fall holiday season, an investment that his campaign argues stands in contrast to Walker, who has been less visible on the trail in recent weeks. There is some evidence that independent voters and some Republicans who would not back Walker may help Warnock hold his seat.
???? Georgia polls start closing at 7 p.m. (The ).
The Hill’s Niall Stanage sets the scene in the Peach State with the five key factors to watch as the high-profile Senate contest wraps up.
The Hill: Here’s a look at five men not on the ballot who may have the most at stake in Georgia’s runoff. Hint: One occupies the White House, one wants to return to the White House and three are exceedingly ambitious senators with divergent aims.
Georgia’s runoff is a window through which analysts are studying the challenges Republicans face while courting Black voters, reports The Hill’s Cheyanne Daniels. An overwhelming majority of Black voters recently indicated in a CNN poll that they planned to cast their ballots for Warnock, the Democrat, rather than Walker.
“[Black voters] are offended that the Republican Party is attempting to impose their version of what a Black leader should be on the Black community,” said Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of Black PAC, speaking about the Georgia runoff.
Meanwhile, the state is not alone in trying to finish the 2022 election business nearly a month after Election Day. Arizona on Monday certified its election results following GOP challenges (The Hill).
“Arizona had a successful election,” said Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D), who was on the ballot on Nov. 8. “But too often throughout the process, powerful voices proliferated misinformation that threatened to disenfranchise voters. Democracy prevailed, but it’s not out of the woods. 2024 will bring a host of challenges from the election denial community that we must prepare for.”
Next year, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), who hopes to be elected Speaker to lead the incoming House Republican majority in the Capitol, would almost assuredly struggle to unify his caucus if he is tapped, according to some Senate Republicans. Doubts about McCarthy and the fate of legislation in the hands of fractious House conservatives help explain why some want to finish major legislation this month, including additional funding for defense and military assistance for Ukraine, opposed by some House Republicans.
McCarthy’s struggles in lining up 218 votes to become Speaker underscore challenges he would face in 2023 to enact major legislation, reports The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. It’s clear that McCarthy will have to rely on Democratic votes, which will undercut his negotiating leverage and spark fights with the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Looking ahead, that reality may encourage GOP senators allied with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to try to navigate around political hurdles they see on the horizon. Getting a budget deal by the end of this week is one fallback option.
The Hill’s Emily Brooks explores the major pledges McCarthy has made to woo fellow Republicans to help make him the next Speaker on Jan. 3.
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▪ The Hill: Former Trump White House national security adviser John Bolton said on Monday he will “seriously consider” challenging his former boss for the GOP presidential nomination if other potential candidates don’t try to dim Trump’s chances in 2024.
▪ CNN: A federal judge on Monday sentenced disgraced former California attorney Michael Avenatti to 14 years in prison and ordered him to pay $11 million after he pleaded guilty to multiple charges of stealing millions of dollars belonging to former clients. Avenatti briefly gained notoriety when he represented adult-film star Stormy Daniels, who alleged she had an affair with Trump years before he entered politics.
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➤ CONGRESS
Tax credits for individuals and businesses are up for grabs as negotiations on a year-end spending deal are coming down to the wire, write The Hill’s Tobias Burns and Aris Folley. The possible credits range from an expansion of the child tax credit, which was beefed up during the pandemic and raised millions of children out of poverty, to incentives for companies to invest more in research and development.
Vox: Inside the fight for an end-of-year deal on the child tax credit.
House leaders are expected to bring a compromise version of the annual defense authorization bill to the floor this week, but details of what the massive military policy legislation will include have yet to be released. The House passed its $840 billion version of the authorization bill over the summer.
The Senate has been discussing the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for months but appears unlikely to pass its own version now, opting instead to simply approve a compromise draft after the House acts. But that hasn’t stopped McCarthy from calling for the measure to be delayed until after the lame duck session, when his party takes control of the House (Military Times).
▪ The Hill: Progressives push back on effort to put Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) permitting reform deal in the NDAA.
▪ Roll Call: Final NDAA is expected to rescind the Pentagon vaccine mandate.
The White House opposes using the annual defense spending bill to repeal a vaccine mandate for military service members, national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday. Republican lawmakers have threatened to delay passage of the annual defense authorization bill if the military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, which was instituted last year, is not rescinded (The Hill).
