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North Korea set off a fresh cycle of provocations by firing three missiles in two days, issuing threats to the US over its joint military drills and parading in Pyongyang its newest rockets designed to deliver nuclear warheads to the American mainland.
Leader Kim Jong Un opened the year with a pledge to exponentially increase his nuclear arms program and has ignored repeated calls to return to stalled US-led talks on winding down his atomic ambitions.
After weathering global sanctions for a series of nuclear and missile tests in 2017, Kim likely sees little chance of more coming: Long-time partners China and Russia last year used their power at the UN Security Council to block any new penalties.
At this point, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities may have risen to a stage where the US may not be able to offer enough incentives to roll them back.
Here are major items to watch in the coming months.
1. Nuclear tests
Kim told his ruling party more than two years ago that he’s seeking tactical nuclear weapons for strikes on battlefields, and wants to increase the yield of thermonuclear bombs his regime can mount on long-range missiles.
That means North Korea’s next nuclear test may consist of two blasts. The first would be of a miniaturized weapon that could be mounted on longer-range artillery. The second would be of a bomb more powerful than one it detonated in 2017, which had an estimated yield of between 120-250 kilotons, roughly ten times the power what the US dropped on Hiroshima in World War II.
All six of North Korea’s previous nuclear tests have been conducted at its mountainous Punggye-ri test site. The US, South Korea and Japan have warned for months that the facility appears ready for another test.
