The 95th Academy Awards will air on ABC this coming Sunday night and we’re picking winners.
It’s the movie industry’s biggest night!
Or it will be this Sunday, when the 95th Academy Awards air on ABC (at the same time as The Last of Us season finale). You can expect slap jokes, a lively performance of “Naatu Naatu,” and tightly-contested races. Last year’s four acting winners (Will Smith, Jessica Chastain, Troy Kotsur, and Ariana DeBose, pre-doing the thing) were basically locks — that’s not the case for the 2023 ceremony. It’s going to be an interesting (and potentially historic) Oscars.
You’ve seen the nominees and Best Picture contenders ranked. Let’s get to the predictions, beginning with some quick hitters.
Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Film Editing: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Costume Design: Elvis
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis
Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Production Design: Babylon
Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Best Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Short Film: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
Best Live Action Short Film: An Irish Goodbye
Best Documentary Short Subject: Stranger at the Gate
Best Documentary Feature: Navalny
Now we move on to ten of the biggest categories of the night.
Best Animated Feature Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
With the exception of Best Visual Effects and Best Supporting Actor, this is the easiest category of the night to call. Famous last words, but Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has a lot going for it. For one thing, there’s the name of a Best Director winner in the title (no, not Pinocchio; his directorial debut was dogsh*t). That means something to Academy voters who don’t animation seriously. Also, in a year of bad Pinocchio movies, this is a great Pinocchio movie! It’s funny, weird, creepy, and the stop-motion animation is a wonder. The other four Best Animated Feature Film nominees could win in another year, but in 2023, it’s Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio’s race to lose.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Close
All Quiet on the Western Front is the 15th foreign-language film to be nominated for Best Picture — only one (Parasite) has won. But while the Netflix anti-war movie will likely be shut out for the night’s biggest prize, it has a solid chance of winning here: four of the last five films nominated in both categories won International Feature (Drive My Car, Parasite, Roma, and Amour). It faces competition from EO, but that’s not even the best donkey movie of 2022 (if you include Jackass Forever, it’s in third). All Quiet will make some noise.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie (story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks), Top Gun: Maverick
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Women Talking
To quote that famous feminist Mark Wahlberg, women ARE talking — but are they winning Best Adapted Screenplay? Sarah Polley’s powerful script and Writers Guild of America Award winner is the most loquacious of the nominees (a.k.a. it done use a lot of words all fancy like), but don’t overlook a push for Top Gun: Maverick. The dialogue is quippy, but a screenplay is more than its one-liners; it has to tell an engaging story, and the thrilling Top Gun sequel resonated for millions of people. There’s also All Quiet on the Western Front, which won Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs, and Rian Johnson’s Knives Out sequel.
With all due respect to the truth-teller scene from Glass Onion, I think this category comes down to two films. All Quiet might have won the battle with more nominations overall, but Women Talking will win this war.
Best Original Screenplay
Todd Field, Tár
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Tár
Every year, the Hollywood Reporter talks to anonymous Oscar voters, and every year, I’m blown away by numbskull rationalizations like, “With Avatar, I don’t know what’s real and what’s animation,” as if that’s a bad thing, or, “I’m hoping that the Academy stops treating Marvel movies like second-class citizens.
