My forecast: Moderate double-digit S&P 500 gains, with big growth stocks leading early, and likely twisting to value stock leadership late in the year.
Happy New Year! It should be.
After 2023’s 26.6% return, 2024 holds more in store. Fortunately, few are lampshade-on-head gleeful. Most investors remain skeptically timid, fretting about all those “risks” you hear abundantly.
As Sir John Templeton legendarily said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
Today’s skepticism helps. Simply said, it’s far harder to kill a young bull market than almost anyone fathoms. Once they hit a first anniversary (done in October 2023), they almost always get a second.
Hence, my forecast: Moderate double-digit S&P 500 gains, with big growth stocks leading early, and likely twisting to value stock leadership late in 2024. Maybe lampshades dance next December.
Yes, I know you think that’s stupid. Christmas Day 2022, I detailed here exactly why 2022 was more like 1966 and its bear market than any year ever — and in so many ways — so 2023’s market should react much like 1967 (without flowers in your hair). It did. The S&P’s 1967 total return was 24%. Most all of my 1966-1967 parallels happened: a no capitulation-based stock market bottom, tech led up 58%.
Ongoing inflation slowed to near normal.
