Winning the New Hampshire primary attests to the former president’s enduring grip on the Republican base.
Donald Trump has clinched the New Hampshire primary in the race to be the Republican presidential nominee, as the polls predicted. The New York Times currently projects an 11-point margin to Nikki Haley in second place – tighter than what he achieved in Iowa, to be sure, but still formidable. The result attests to Trump’s enduring grip on the GOP voter base, as well as the disconnect between the desires of rank-and-file Republicans and the party establishment as embodied by Haley.
Haley, a former UN ambassador, went into New Hampshire with solid advantages. For one thing, the Granite State allows undeclared voters, who make up 40 per cent of the state’s electorate, to take part in either party’s primaries. Trump warned his supporters that Democrats were using this opening to “infiltrate” the primary to Haley’s benefit. Yet only 3,542 New Hampshire Democrats, or 0.4 per cent of all registered voters in the state, changed their affiliation to undeclared ahead of the 6 October deadline; even fewer Democrats, about 400, changed their affiliation to Republican.
Still, New Hampshire also allows same-day voter registration, and Trump had good reason to worry about independents, especially Democratic-leaning ones, participating in the process. In the 2016 primary, he won the largest share of New Hampshire independents. But in Iowa this year, Trump won independents by only eight points, even as he thumped Haley among Republicans by a whopping 39 points. His fears were no doubt heightened by Chris Sununu, New Hampshire’s popular governor, stumping relentlessly for Haley.
Then there was Haley’s money advantage.
