Trump has more extreme plans for democracy and the power of the presidency. But on foreign policy, things get more complicated.
With Nikki Haley as the last remaining significant challenger to Donald Trump, media coverage of her has focused overwhelmingly on the question of whether she can win and on her gaffes. Skepticism about her prospects certainly makes sense, given Trump’s commanding poll leads.
Still, comparatively little attention has been devoted to the question of how the two would govern differently as president of the United States.
You might think the answer would be simple: Trump would be his unhinged self, and Haley would be more of a “normal” Republican. Trump would pose a dire threat to democracy and the rule of law, and Haley would not.
And that’s a big part of the story — arguably, most of the story. Trump doesn’t respect election results, can inspire mob violence like that of January 6, and wants to turn the Justice Department against his critics. None of those apply to Haley.
On domestic policy, reports suggest a second-term Trump would use executive power very aggressively to crack down on immigration and fire vast swathes of civil service employees, and perhaps to reshape US trade policy as well. There’s reason to doubt Haley would go so far on any of these issues.
The complication is in foreign policy. There, the combination of Trump’s erraticism and his “America First” instincts presents risks to global stability. But Haley has campaigned as the avatar of a hawkish GOP establishment that has been responsible for major foreign policy disasters. The current obvious area of contrast is that Haley staunchly supports Ukraine and Trump does not, but their differing instincts could play out in other yet-to-erupt conflicts in unpredictable ways.Trump vs. Haley on democracy
It’s pretty obvious that President Trump would present a much greater threat to the continued functioning of American democracy than President Haley.
Trump, of course, tried to steal the 2020 election and keep himself in power despite his loss to Joe Biden. Such flagrant defiance of democratic norms is common in less developed democracies but something quite new in the United States — it’s a Trump special.
That tendency of Trump’s is made more dangerous by his ability to inspire supporters into mob violence, as demonstrated at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. It’s far less likely that anyone would storm the Capitol for Nikki Haley. Trump’s charisma is a powerful and dangerous thing.
Additionally, there’s the desire Trump has repeatedly expressed to pervert the Justice Department and launch (bogus) prosecutions against his critics and political opponents. He largely failed in these efforts in his first term, despite many attempts. But now that he himself is facing four indictments, including two from the DOJ, he’d likely go further in trying to wrest complete personal control of the department.
Haley, for her part, said on January 7, 2021, that Trump “was badly wrong,” and that “his actions since Election Day will be judged harshly by history.” The following month, she added,Trump’sti “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”
But she soon made it clear she opposed impeaching and convicting Trump, saying, “Give the man a break.” She has been careful and measured in her criticism of Trump and will likely endorse him if he defeats her in the primary to preserve her future prospects in the GOP. So Haley isn’t exactly a champion of democracy — but she’s a normal Republican who wouldn’t actively try to shatter it, like Trump would.Trump vs. Haley on foreign policy
The world of 2024 is a dangerous place. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are continuing, while tensions rise around Taiwan and the Korean peninsula. And Trump and Haley have sharply different instincts in how to deal with many of these crises.
Haley shows every sign of being a traditional Republican hawk — she sees the US as locked in conflict with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and she wants to ramp up activity abroad and demonstrate “strength” against them.
