The Colorado River’s future may be a little brighter than expected, according to a new modeling study from CIRES researchers. Warming temperatures, which deplete water in the river, have raised doubts the Colorado River could recover from a multi-decade drought. The new study fully accounts for both rising temperatures and precipitation in the Colorado’s headwaters, and finds precipitation, not temperature, will likely continue to dictate the flow of the river for the next 25 years.
The Colorado River’s future may be a little brighter than expected, according to a new modeling study from CIRES researchers. Warming temperatures, which deplete water in the river, have raised doubts the Colorado River could recover from a multi-decade drought. The new study fully accounts for both rising temperatures and precipitation in the Colorado’s headwaters, and finds precipitation, not temperature, will likely continue to dictate the flow of the river for the next 25 years.
Precipitation falling in the river’s headwaters region is likely to be more abundant than during the prior two decades. The work, published in the Journal of Climate, comes as policymakers, water managers, states, and tribes look for answers on how to govern the Colorado River’s flows beyond 2025.
«It’s a sort of nuanced message,» said Balaji Rajagopalan, CIRES Fellow and co-author of the study. «Yes, the temperature is warming, but that’s not the full story—you add precipitation and you get a fuller picture.»
CIRES affiliate Martin Hoerling and Fellow Balaji Rajagopalan worked with colleagues from several other institutions to analyze data from a suite of models, including climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
