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The economic woes from inflation look to have accelerated a shift of Latino voters toward Republicans, cutting in half a Democratic lead with a critical voting group in the lead up to a tight presidential election, according to an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey.
The survey of 1,000 Latino likely voters found the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, leading the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, by 54% to 40%. That’s considerably less than the 36-point lead that President Joe Biden enjoyed in the run-up to the 2020 election. Biden’s advantage was almost half again the 50-point lead that Hillary Clinton held over Trump in 2016, suggesting a longer-term trend that shows Latinos in the Democratic camp but in diminishing numbers.
“There’s an intensity around these issues that is quite striking’,’ said Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, the Democratic pollsters for the survey. “The cost of living and inflation is really what is informing a lot of the way that people are thinking about economy and the economic future of the country.”
The survey was conducted from Sept. 15 through Sept. 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris’s 14-point lead is the narrowest margin for a Democratic candidate among surveyed Latino voters in at least the past four elections, going back to 2012. The survey also found a 54% to 42% preference for Democratic control of Congress among Latinos, the smallest Democratic lead since 2012. That indicates a shift that could be more far-reaching than just the presidential race.
“The data in this poll is not a flash in the pan”, said Micah Roberts, partner with Public Opinion Strategies, who served as the Republican pollster for the survey. “It’s a continuation of a precipitous and massive shift in the political identity of one of the most important voter groups in America.”
Harris has strong leads among respondents when it comes to issues of character: by two-to-one, surveyed Latino voters think she will do a better job addressing their needs; 48% gave Harris a positive favorability rating compared to 32% for Trump; and she led Trump by around 20 points or more on the questions of who has the right temperament to be president and who is more trustworthy, competent and effective.
