According to Newsweek’s analysis, polls show that on average, there is a 9 point gender gap between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
In the final stretch of the election, analysis by Newsweek indicates a significant gender divide, with women voters showing a strong preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, while men show a strong preference for Trump.
Newsweek looked at the national polls since October 28 that provide a breakdown of voting intention based on gender and found that on average, women break for Harris by 8 points, while men break for Trump by 10 points. That amounts to an average gender gap of 9 points.
According to Newsweek’s analysis, polls show that on average, Harris has the support of 52 percent of female voters and 43 percent of male voters. Meanwhile, 53 percent of male voters back Trump compared to 44 percent of female voters.
The gender gap is not a new phenomenon. Women have been more likely to support the Democrats and men have been more likely to support the Republicans since the 1980s, and this political divide has only grown over time. But this year, the divide could have significant implications for the election result due to how close the race currently stands.
With only a few days to go until the election, polls are closer than ever, with FiveThirtyEight’s tracker showing Kamala Harris leading by 1 point, while every swing state is within a 2 point margin. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report released it final projections on Friday, which revealed the election is too close to call.
Carrie Baker, a Professor of Women, Gender and Sexuality at Smith College in Massachusetts told Newsweek: “Whichever way this election goes, gender will be a critical factor in determining the outcome.”
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
A recent poll by J.L. Partners, conduced between October 26 and 29, showed that male voters were 22 points more likely than women to support the former president. Meanwhile, women broke for Harris by 14 points. That amounts to an average gender gap of 18 points.
Other polls have also shown Trump leading Harris by a large margin among men. For example, a poll conducted by Quantus Insights between October 27 and 30 showed that Trump was ahead of Harris by 13 points among men, and Harris led him by 11 points among women. That amounts to an average gender gap of 12 points.
However, some polls have shown a much smaller gender gap.
