If history provides any clues, don’t expect China to account for the same market share of U.S. exports it did prior to President Trump’s global tariffs anytime soon.
China announced today that it would retaliate against the United States with 34% tariffs on its exports that would go into effect next week, the boldest push back so far against President Trump’s trade war with the world announced two days earlier.
If history provides any clues, don’t expect China to account for the same market share it did prior to the April 2 announcement of global tariffs anytime soon.
The Chinese tariffs that will pummel soybeans, the primary aircraft category, the primary category for vaccines, plasma and blood fractions, cotton and grain sorghum.
China is the No. 1 buyer of those U.S. exports, among many others.
In addition, China is the third-largest purchaser of U.S. passenger vehicles and the third-largest purchaser of LNG and other natural gases, tariffs against both of which will be a gut-punch to their respective industries.
Overall, China is the nation’s third-ranked export partner after Canada and Mexico, accounting for 7% of all U.S. exports in 2024, according to my analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
In 2024, China bought 52% of all U.S. soybeans. If history provides any clues, the U.S. soybean farmers are in for a rough year.
During the trade war Trump started against China in his firm term, China all but stopped purchasing U.S. soybeans. Its market share had been 57% of all U.S. exports in 2017, the year prior to the start of the trade war. The total shipments fell from $12.22 billion in 2017 to $3.12 billion in 2018, equal to slightly more than 18% of the total. Due to the damage caused by Trump’s decision, the United States spent $23 billion to bail out farmers for the damage to their business.
