Mamdani leads Cuomo in a close NYC mayoral race with ranked choice voting ahead.
Ranked choice voting makes predicting even not-so-close races difficult sometimes, and when the poll numbers are close, all bets are off.
Well, not all bets. Polymarket is doing a brisk business, and the gamblers there think Zohran Mamdani is likely to win the Democratic Party primary that ends tomorrow.
BREAKING: Mamdani surges as clear favorite in the NYC Mayoral primary.
61% chance he wins. pic.twitter.com/8KJeTHMyan— Polymarket (@Polymarket) June 23, 2025
The « optimism », if you can call it that, about Mamdan’s prospects in the primary stems from an apparent surge of support over the past couple of weeks. In the halcyon days of early June, it seemed that former Governor Andrew Cuomo had the nomination in the bag, even though his old baggage had to fit inside the new.
However, Mamdani has been steadily rising in the polls, and despite being a couple of points behind in initial preference — well within the margin of error — by the time the simulated « rounds » of voting end, using the Byzantine ranked-choice method, Mamdani comes out on top — barely.
Shocking poll shows Mamdani overtaking Cuomo in NYC’s ranked choice primary https://t.co/yVVIdtfn5O pic.twitter.com/sL2ukmGeN2— New York Post (@nypost) June 23, 2025
And Byzantine the system is. According to the simulation based on a recent poll, Mamdani would win in the EIGHTH round of counting.
Lefty upstart Zohran Mamdani has leapfrogged over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the city’s ranked choice Democratic primary for mayor, according to a stunning new poll released Monday.
In its hypothetical initial round of voting, Cuomo’s lead shrinks to 3 percentage points, with 35% of likely Democratic voters supporting him compared to 32% for Mamdani and 13% for city Comptroller Brad Lander, the Emerson College Polling/Pix 11/The Hill survey found.
City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams follows with 8%, Scott Stringer 3% and 5% split between candidates Zellnor Myrie, Whitney Tilson, Jessica Ramos and Michael Blake, with another 4% undecided.
Cuomo’s lead shrinks to 3 percentage points, with 35% of likely Democratic voters supporting him compared to 32% for Mamdani.
But since no one garners the more than 50% of the vote needed to win outright, the ranked choice system kicks in.
