As President Donald Trump and Congress fumble through his One Big Beautiful Bill on the budget for fiscal year 2025-26, they have been ignoring the mastodon in the room: Social Security and Medicare are heading into depletion.
As President Donald Trump and Congress fumble through his One Big Beautiful Bill on the budget for fiscal year 2025-26, they have been ignoring the mastodon in the room: Social Security and Medicare are heading into depletion.
The funds are not in immediate danger. But according to the annual report of the funds’ Board of Trustees, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, the key part of Social Security, can pay 100% of benefits only until 2033, the same estimate as last year. After that, “the fund’s reserves will become depleted” and be able to pay only 77% of scheduled benefits.
It’s similar for the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, or Medicare Part A, which pays for inpatient hospital and other care. It also can pay 100% of benefits until 2033, after which it will be able to pay only 89%. Even worse, the projected depletion date has moved up three years—from 2036 in last year’s report to 2033 now.
The loss of those three years “is a stark warning about the unsustainability of the program and its sensitivity to health care consumption and price fluctuations,” Romina Boccia told us; she’s the director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute and the co-author of the forthcoming book, “Reimagining Social Security: Global Lessons for Retirement Policy Changes.
