Four weeks in, there’s no real favorite to win it all or take home the Heisman. Here’s what we think we know.
In Friday’s Week 4 preview I wrote that Saturday would basically close the book on the first act of the 2025 college football season. That’s basically what happened.
Some wobbly teams lost further ground and nearly eliminated themselves from playoff contention. Others seemed to right themselves with playoff hopes intact. Upstarts made statements — Indiana humiliated Illinois, Texas Tech won a Utah-as-hell game over Utah, Ole Miss once again hinted at spectacular upside and hierarchies were altered.
Next Saturday, we begin Act II with a loaded week and a pair of epic evening headliners — Oregon at Penn State and Alabama at Georgia. But before we dive into that, let’s take a look at what actually changed over the first four weeks of the season. Which races have been completely scrambled? Which haven’t really been altered all that much? And who in the world is going to step up in the Heisman race?
One of the stories of the offseason was that it felt like the top of the sport was a bit more decentralized, that the best teams maybe weren’t quite as dominant and more teams had semi-legitimate national title shots.
As it turns out, we were underselling it. In the preseason, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gave Texas a 24.7% chance at the title, with four teams over 10% and 17 teams over 1%. Four weeks later, no one is over 12.5%, and 20 teams are at 1% or higher. Eight teams are within three points of No. 1 in FPI, and while Oregon has separated itself a bit in SP+, teams No. 2 through 14 are separated by less than a touchdown. Maybe the Ducks are indeed the best the sport has to offer this season; it’s hard to argue with a combined four-game scoreline of 203-37 (though Indiana’s 219-33 scoreline is even more garish). But it feels like we know even less about the top of the sport now than we did four weeks ago, and that’s an incredible feeling.
Largest increase in national title odds since the preseason:
• Oregon +8.4% (to 12.3%)
• Indiana +7.3% (to 7.5%)
• Ole Miss +6.4% (to 8.5%)
• USC +4.7% (to 5.8%)
• Miami +3.3% (to 4.7%)
Hello there, Indiana. We live in a world in which Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have better title odds than Alabama, Texas or Penn State. That’s how good they’ve looked this year, and that’s the level of statement they made in Saturday night’s 63-10 humiliation of Illinois.
It started in the trenches. The Indiana running back trio of Roman Hemby, Khobie Martin and Kaelon Black combined for 36 carries, 261 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Hoosiers defense sacked Illinois’ Luke Altmyer seven times while limiting Illini RBs to 2.6 yards per carry. Illinois’ Collin Dixon sprang open for a 59-yard touchdown early in the game, but otherwise the visitors averaged 2.3 yards per play. I mentioned in my Friday preview that it was pretty confusing that Illinois was ranked 10 spots ahead of Indiana heading into the game. The Hoosiers evidently thought that was a little strange as well and did something about it.
Largest decrease in national title odds since the preseason:
• Texas -18.1% (to 6.6%)
• Penn State -5.7% (to 3.1%)
• Notre Dame -4.8% (to 0.3%)
• Alabama -3.6% (to 7.2%)
• South Carolina -2.4% (to 0.0%)
These teams landed on this list in five different ways. Texas lost to Ohio State and has watched its offense stutter and stumble all season. The Horns potentially took a solid step forward in Saturday’s 55-0 blowout of hapless Sam Houston, but they’re still only 44th in SP+, and a lot of margin for error has seeped away.
Penn State remains unbeaten but has seen its odds dinged both by a series of merely good performances against poor competition and the relative rise of upcoming opponents Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State. The road looks a little rockier.
Notre Dame lost two huge games to start the season, and while the computers still like the Irish reasonably well, they’ll have to win out and hope to get a decent strength-of-schedule boost along the way.
Alabama laid the biggest egg of Week 1 and saw its rating fall accordingly (before rebounding a bit in Weeks 2 and 3). And now six of their next seven games are against ranked opponents. That’s great for resume-building, but it’s not great for maintaining a playoff-worthy record.
South Carolina’s offense started the year in neutral, and when the Gamecocks finally got going a bit Saturday, their defense dropped the ball. They averaged 5.9 yards per play against a good Missouri defense but allowed 6.1 and fell to the Tigers 29-20. They’re now 0-2 in the SEC and 2-2 overall.
A new week, a new low. Saturday’s 34-21 home loss to Syracuse left Clemson coach Dabo Swinney without all of his typical defiance and defense mechanisms. The Tigers outgained the Orange by 70 yards with a far better success rate (48% to 36%), but big plays, a minus-2 turnover margin and an early surprise onside kick from Syracuse did them in. All of Clemson’s old bad habits (a lack of big plays, a defense less effective than the sum of its parts) have reemerged, and their typical saving graces (an efficient ground game, a masterful middle eight) haven’t saved them.
The Tigers are 1-3 for the first time since 2004. They’ve fallen behind 16-0, 13-0 and 24-7 in their past three games, and while they battled back (at least somewhat) each time, they’re giving themselves too much of a burden to overcome. They’re also 0-2 in ACC play, meaning that even if they turn it on and win out, they’ll still need some help getting to the conference title game.
This has rather predictably redefined the ACC title race. So has SMU’s 2-2 start, even though both of the Mustangs’ losses were out of conference.
ACC preseason title odds per SP+: Clemson 18.8%, Miami 13.4%, SMU 10.4%, Louisville 8.7%, Florida State 5.8%, Virginia Tech 5.5%, NC State 5.0%
Current ACC title odds per SP+: Miami 26.3%, Georgia Tech 14.2%, Louisville 13.6%, Florida State 10.5%, Virginia 6.8%, Pitt 6.5%, SMU 5.5%, Syracuse 4.8%
Perhaps as you would have guessed, Miami now leads the way, and Louisville is rising, but Georgia Tech and Florida State have gone from also-rans to each having at least a 1-in-10 title chance. Miami knows as well as any team that the race is just beginning — the Hurricanes sure looked like favorites during a 9-0 start last season, too, especially during the first four games before their defense began to wobble. That they missed the title game altogether and lost three of their last four is a pretty clear reminder of how much work remains.
Still, they’ve done all they can through four games, especially on defense. They’ve allowed only one of four opponents to top five yards per play, and in Saturday evening’s methodical 26-7 shellacking of Florida, they hinted at having a lot of different ways to win a ballgame in 2025. They allowed just 4.7 yards per play with seven tackles for loss and eight three-and-outs. Against a dynamite Florida defense, Carson Beck threw for just 160 yards with a pick and a sack, but the duo of Mark Fletcher Jr. and Char’Mar Brown combined for 42 carries, 196 yards and 3 TDs. They had to get really physical to win, and they did so.
Other possible ACC contenders also looked the part this weekend. Florida State and Louisville beat overwhelmed MAC opponents by a combined 106-27, and unbeaten Georgia Tech handled a semi-spicy Temple team with relative ease. We’ll see who best takes advantage of Clemson’s early collapse (and who avoids a late-season collapse themselves).
It’s been a mixed bag for the teams atop this offseason’s returning production rankings. Clemson (No. 1 in returning production) has bombed, Arizona State (No. 2) started the season in second gear again, Illinois (No. 4) looked fine before getting crushed Saturday, and teams like Kennesaw State (No. 5), Rutgers (No. 8) and Baylor (No. 9) haven’t started this season any better than where they finished up.
Others, however, are still defending the honor of continuity. Oklahoma (No. 10) and Texas A&M (No. 7) are unbeaten, Texas Tech (No. 6) looks spectacular, and holy smokes, break up the Vanderbilt Commodores (No. 3)!
Clark Lea’s team is on a revenge tour at the moment. The Commodores pummeled South Carolina by a 31-7 margin last week (a 45-point reversal), and on Saturday against a Georgia State team that upset them 36-32 last September, they were ruthless, charging to a 42-9 halftime advantage and leading by as much as 55 in a 70-21 win. That’s a 53-point reversal. They’re now up to 16th in SP+ — the only time they’ve finished higher than that in the last 50 years: 2014 (14th) — and they have a 16% chance of finishing 10-2 or better, which is the approximate bar for getting into the CFP as an SEC team.
Some schedule strength differences aside, they’ve basically traded places with Florida.
Preseason SP+: Florida 16th (6.8 avg. wins, 5.3% chance of winning the SEC), Vanderbilt 54th (5.0 wins, 1.0% chance)
Week 5 SP+: Vanderbilt 16th (8.3 avg. wins, 5.6% chance of winning the SEC), Florida 40th (3.3 wins, 0.8% chance)
Up is down, left is right, and Vandy’s Florida now.
Meanwhile, back in the ACC, two rivals have traded places too.
Preseason SP+: Virginia Tech 42nd (7.0 avg. wins), Virginia 74th (5.4)
Week 5 SP+: Virginia 42nd (8.
