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Why Initial Jobs Data Often Misleads On U.S. Growth

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BLS reports draw from surveys of approximately 121,000 businesses, making them provisional and prone to updates with fuller datasets.
In today’s turbulent markets, the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report often triggers sharp reactions among investors. Take the September 5, 2025 release: nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August, well below the 75,000 analysts expected, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%. This underwhelming figure has intensified discussions about the economy’s trajectory.
However, initial reports like these can mislead, frequently inflating growth signals that later revisions correct downward. As the BLS’s preliminary benchmark revision on September 9, 2025, revealed, job creation from April 2024 to March 2025 was overstated by 911,000—the most significant adjustment since 2009. This recurring pattern points to a decelerating economy.

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