A prediction market user won big after wagering $32,000 that the U.S. would capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Was it insider trading?
A trader made more than $436,000 on a prediction market by appearing to anticipate former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces last weekend, raising questions about the timing of the bet and the integrity of such online futures trading platforms.
An anonymous user on Polymarket won the payout after placing a roughly $32,000 wager on Maduro’s removal — just before President Trump announced the U.S. had ousted the former leader.
The longshot wager raises questions about the anonymous bettor’s identity and potential access to inside information ahead of the U.S. operation to seize Maduro and his wife, legal and financial experts told CBS News.
Polymarket, a New York-based cryptocurrency prediction market that recently secured a $2 billion investment from stock exchange operator Intercontinental Exchange, is currently pursuing regulatory approval in the U.S.Suspicious timing?
A Polymarket account holder, who appeared to join the trading platform in December, bet $32,537 on the likelihood that Maduro would be «out by January 31, 2026.» The speculative investment was placed shortly before Mr. Trump announced Maduro’s arrest at 4:21 a.m. Saturday on Truth Social.
Experts said several indicators suggest the bettor could have had access to classified information regarding the U.S. operation to capture Maduro.
«It clearly suggests that the bettor did have access to inside information», said Dennis Kelleher, cofounder and CEO of Better Markets, a nonpartisan advocacy group focused on financial reform.
