As President Donald Trump’s Defense Secretary Jim Mattis visits South Korea amid chaos in North Korea, history has a terrifying chance of repeating itself. A second Korean War could emerge, not from calculating minds of decision makers, but from misperceptions both could make. We know that the likelihood of this is high, because it has happened before in the same place.
Misperception Led to the First Korean War
To understand the mistakes that may happen, the best lessons we can employ come from political science professor Robert Jervis. While many of his colleagues sought to employ rational choice models to international conflict, Jervis argued that misperception often leads to international wars. Such misperception comes from believing one’s forces are stronger than they really are, or believing an opponent is weaker than he or she really is.
Examples of misperception that lead to that bloody war can be found in 1950. We now know that Soviet Union leader Josef Stalin strongly encouraged North Korean leader Kim Il-Sung to launch an attack, and the Russians gave them many pieces of artillery, tanks and planes. P. K. Rose of the CIA claims that Secretary of State Dean Acheson said he drew a defense perimeter that excluded South Korea, making communist forces confident that America wouldn’t intervene, thereby misperceiving our resolve. Acheson was actually trying to build support for South Korea, but was misinterpreted in his famous National Press Club Speech of January 12, 1950, according to James I. Matray, writing in the Journal of Conflict Studies.
South Korean forces may have been poorly equipped, but North Korea underestimated the tenacity with which the ROK forces would stubbornly resist the invasion. Kim Il-Sung misperceived General Douglas MacArthur’s brilliant tactical move, the Inchon Landing, which led to the devastation of North Korea’s KPA forces and the loss of their capital. But MacArthur himself misperceived signals that China would attack U. S. forces in North Korea as well, writes Rose.
Chances for a Second Korean War
Misperception could lead to a second Korean War, in a similar fashion to the way the first emerged in the summer of 1950.
