The film academy gave its members a reprieve this year, pushing back the beginning of Oscar voting so everyone had more time to go to screenings, sift through their DVDs and deeply consider what movies and performances to nominate.
Balloting ended Friday, the same week that the directors and producers guilds announced their slates and Meryl Streep delivered an awards show speech for the ages about He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named.
What does it all mean for the Academy Awards? Time for another edition of Oscar Watch, as we puzzle through the latest news and developments leading up to the academy’s revealing of its nominees on Jan. 24.
“La La Land”
“Moonlight”
“ Manchester by the Sea ”
“Fences”
“Arrival”
“Lion”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Silence”
Now the question is: How many more films will the academy select? “Hidden Figures” is the feel-good choice, sporting a popular ensemble and currently peaking at the box office. “Hacksaw” is the preferred pick among the academy members we like to call “steak eaters,” i.e. older white males, i.e. most of the membership. And “Hell or High Water” is the best movie of the trio, a thriller that weaves in pointed social commentary that speaks to the anxiety of our times.
All three could make it in — meaning there would be nine nominated movies, as was the case from 2012 to 2014. Or, possibly — and I’m not holding my breath — Martin Scorsese ’s acolytes could make their presence felt by putting “Silence” in the top spot on their preferential ballots. Pundits call such placement the “passion vote,” a particularly apt term for a deeply felt film like “Silence.” Let’s just say I’m holding Hebrews 11:1 close to my heart right now.
Emma Stone , “La La Land”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Annette Bening , “20th Century Women”
Isabelle Huppert , “Elle”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
But that doesn’t always matter among actors branch voters, as they’ve recently rewarded leads from off-the-beaten-path indies — Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”), Marion Cotillard (“Two Days, One Night”) and Emmanuelle Riva (“Amour”). Huppert is the quintessential “due” nominee. That might give her an edge, and Streep certainly won a few votes with her speech at the Golden Globes. (Rami Malek: “In a weird way, she’s our president.” ) As for Bening, she’s plenty revered herself and has served on the academy’s board of governors the past several years. Did I mention this is an almost impossible choice?
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Michael Keaton, “The Founder”
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Michelle Williams , “Manchester by the Sea”
Naomie Harris , “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman , “Lion”
Octavia Spencer , “Hidden Figures”
Janelle Monáe, “Hidden Figures”
Mahershala Ali , “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel , “Lion”
Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Martin Scorsese, “Silence”
David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water”
