Two decades of betrayed optimism.
In June 1995, two years before this longtime British colony and its 6 million crown subjects were due to be handed over to communist China, Fortune Magazine printed a famously controversial — and widely panned — cover story titled “ The Death of Hong Kong.” It predicted that once business-friendly Hong Kong became infected with China’s culture of corruption and patronage, this glittering international finance hub would become just another typical mainland city. “In fact, ” the article declared, “the naked truth about Hong Kong’s future can be summed up in two words: It’s over.”
Of course, not all the early predictions proved incorrect. China grew much wealthier: The per capita GDP in 1997 was about $780, and today it tops $8,000. In the mid-’ 90s, China was still largely rural, with 70 percent of the population in the countryside; now the share living in cities is nearly 60 percent. Back then, when China was still the kingdom of bicycles, private cars were a relative rarity. Today, there are more than 172 million private cars in China, and the country is one of the world’s fast-growing auto markets. China is also a freer, more open place: Unlike two decades ago, Chinese can live where they want, take jobs they want, make as much money as they’ re able, marry and divorce whom and when they want, and travel virtually everywhere.
Two decades ago, it seemed that China needed Hong Kong as its gateway to the world. But China today sees that gateway as a threat, a potential beachhead for subversion and a problem to be contained before it infects the mainland.
Hong Kong’s 20th-century role as the entrepot, or connector, between China and the West has long since vanished, as foreign firms are able to base offices in China and sell directly to Chinese consumers.
