Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is betting that he can crush a weak opposition in next month’s election. The margin of victory may determine whether his ruling party replaces him in 2018.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is betting that he can crush a weak opposition in next month’s election. The margin of victory may determine whether his ruling party replaces him in 2018.
Abe announced on Monday that he would dissolve parliament later this week, more than a year before its term expires. He framed the election as a chance to vote on his strong stance on North Korea and his plans to use revenues from a planned sales-tax hike to fund a $18 billion economic package aimed at tackling the challenges of an aging society.
“An election in these circumstances will also be a test of confidence in me,” Abe said. Voting will be set for Oct. 22, according to three people with knowledge of his ruling coalition’s plans.
Abe’s approval ratings have climbed as North Korea has fired missiles over Japan, focusing the public on security issues instead of conflict-of-interest scandals that have damaged his image.
While some analysts say he may have called the election to capitalize on opposition disarray, he still has to win big: Anything short of the two-thirds majority his coalition controls could prompt his ruling Liberal Democratic Party to oust him in a leadership vote next year.
Abe has served a total of almost six years as prime minister: he had a truncated term a decade ago, and came back to power in a landslide in 2012. He could serve until 2021 if re-elected as party leader next year, making him the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history, though recent polls have shown a majority of voters are against this idea. Two-Thirds Majority
“Depending on whether he loses a lot of seats, there may be stronger calls from within the party for him to be replaced next year,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. “But a lot depends on how the economy and his own public support rate fare.
