While obviously the progress of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs is a newsworthy and disturbing development, the reactions of various nations interested in the issue deserve more attention than they have received.
In covering the North Korea nuclear issue, the media understandably have developed a narrative that gives pride of place to North Korean bomb and missile tests and short shrift to diplomatic developments surrounding them. While obviously the progress of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs is a newsworthy and disturbing development, the reactions of various nations interested in the issue deserve more attention than they have received and could point the way toward greater international cooperation to freeze or roll back the North Korean programs. These developments provide a positive counterpoint to the gloom cast by the North Korean tests.
The major actors in northeast Asia are the five other countries—the United States, China, South Korea, Japan, and Russia—that took part in the Six-Party talks beginning in 2003 designed to denuclearize North Korea. All of them except Russia have individually and collectively begun to rethink their security interests in the wake of the barrage of North Korean tests, and in a way that offers promise of a more coherent and effective international approach that will make North Korea pay a larger price for its behavior.
In fact, changes in national mood and policy in South Korea and Japan in response to the North Korean tests have been striking, and consequential.
South Korea’s president immediately abandoned his previous hesitancy and agreed to deploy the full complement of anti-missile (THAAD) batteries offered by the United States, in defiance of Chinese, Russian, and North Korean objections. President Moon quickly obtained U. S. agreement to develop and deploy longer-range missiles to strike all corners of North Korea if necessary. South Korea’s defense minister publicly bruited the idea of inviting U. S. tactical nuclear weapons back to South Korea for the first time in 25 years. Polls showed 64 percent of South Koreans supporting the development of nuclear weapons.
Reactions in Japan have been less dramatic, but significant nonetheless. The Japanese government immediately announced a $1.5 billion increase in missile defense spending. The secretary general of the ruling LDP party suggested a national discussion of whether U. S. nuclear weapons should be allowed on Japanese soil to improve extended deterrence. There has been increased public discussion of acquisition of offensive strike capabilities and relaxation of legal constraints on use of force. The ongoing Japanese government review of its security posture undoubtedly will be affected by the North Korean tests, and more robust defense policies seem likely to ensue. Unlike in South Korea, opposition to development of nuclear weapons remains strong, with only 9 percent favoring a Japanese nuclear force, but the issue has been much more publicly discussed than in the past. Prime Minister Abe has been on the phone several times with President Trump exploring ways to tighten sanctions on North Korea and strengthen Japan’s defenses.
These developments among their neighbors have not gone unnoticed in Beijing. China understands that South Korea and Japan will not stand still in the face of North Korean provocations.
