Auburn becomes the first two-loss team ever to make the top four, while one-loss Alabama drops to No. 5 and must hope for help while watching conference championship weekend from the sidelines.
Losses by last week’s top two teams, Alabama and Miami, shook up the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday as two schools made their first appearance in the CFP top four in the penultimate rankings of the season released.
At No. 2, Auburn makes its debut in the top four after knocking off its second top-ranked team of the season. The Tigers, who beat Alabama 26-14 in Saturday’s Iron Bowl, are the first two-loss team ever to be ranked in the top four. Auburn previously beat Georgia when the Bulldogs were No. 1. Georgia (No. 6 this week) will have a chance at redemption as it faces a banged-up Auburn squad in Saturday’s SEC championship game.
Auburn sits behind Clemson, which ascended to No. 1 this week. The reigning champs are followed by Auburn, Oklahoma and Wisconsin.
The Badgers have spent the entire season on the outside of the CFP semifinal bubble looking in, but the only remaining unbeaten Power 5 school still needs another victory in order to stay in the top four. Wisconsin meets Ohio State in the Big Ten title game Saturday. Should the eighth-ranked Buckeyes win, they could provide their own compelling argument for a spot in the semifinals.
The third-ranked Sooners will be locked in a rematch for their conference title game as Oklahoma will face TCU for the Big 12 championship. The Sooners’ spot is not guaranteed, though, as a loss to the No. 11 Horned Frogs on Saturday could send them tumbling out of the CFP semifinals.
Despite Saturday’s loss to rival Auburn, Alabama coach Nick Saban believes his team “deserves an opportunity to get in the playoff,” but that will depend on how conference title weekend goes. Having fallen to No. 5 this week in the CFP rankings, Alabama must hope a favorite such as Oklahoma or Clemson loses; if that happens, the Crimson Tide’s résumé might lift them back into the playoff mix. Unlike Miami and Ohio State, however, Alabama won’t have the luxury of playing an additional game to state its case.
Should the No. 8 Buckeyes beat No. 4 Wisconsin to win the Big Ten title, the committee would have to decide whether their résumé – with a conference title and two losses, including to Iowa – is enough to catapult them ahead of one-loss Alabama.
Miami picked the worst time to suffer its first loss of the season, a stunning 24-14 defeat to unranked Pittsburgh. That loss dropped the Hurricanes from No. 2 to No. 7, and their only hope at getting back into the top four begins with a win in Saturday’s ACC title game against Clemson.
At No. 9, Penn State is probably the highest-ranked team that is without any possible path into the CFP top four. The final rankings will be released Sunday at 9 a.m. on ESPN.
The Nittany Lions are followed by USC, the highest-ranked team from the Pac-12. The Trojans square off with No. 12 Stanford for the conference championship on Friday night in Palo Alto. That game will be a rematch of a Sept. 9 USC victory at the Coliseum.
With No. 10 USC and No. 11 TCU staring up at the other contenders, they look like extreme long shots. Even as conference champions, a one-loss Alabama or two-loss Ohio State would stand a better chance to make the top four than the Trojans or Horned Frogs.
TCU is followed by Stanford and Washington. The Huskies entered last week’s Apple Cup ranked 17th, four spots behind rival Washington State, but Washington’s decisive 41-14 victory lifted the Huskies to No. 13 and dropped the Cougars to No. 18.
UCF, a winner over in-state rival USF in a high-scoring thriller Saturday, is the highest-ranked Group of 5 school and sits at No. 14 with designs on a New Year’s Day bowl game. The only thing standing in the undefeated Knights’ way is No. 20 Memphis. The two teams meet in the AAC championship game, with the winner likely playing in the Peach Bowl.
Notre Dame fell from No. 8 to No. 15 after losing at Stanford last weekend. The Irish are followed by Michigan State, LSU, Washington State, Oklahoma State and Memphis.
Northwestern is No. 21 as Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, N. C. State and Fresno State round out the CFP top 25.
So how would these rankings shake out if they were to hold?
The Orange Bowl is guaranteed the ACC champion, but with projected champion Clemson in a semifinal, it would choose the next highest-ranked ACC team, which is No. 7 Miami. The Orange Bowl must then select a non-conference champion from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame. If the rankings held it would then turn to No. 5 Alabama, which is the highest-ranked available team meeting that criteria.
Any displaced conference champion from the Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 or SEC automatically gets a berth in one of the Cotton, Fiesta or Peach Bowls, which take into consideration geography and fan interest when making selections. Because No. 10 USC, the projected Pac-12 champ in this ranking, can’t go to its traditional spot in the Rose Bowl, it would most likely face No. 8 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.
The next highest-ranked team available is No. 6 Georgia, which makes sense for the nearby Peach Bowl in Atlanta. The Bulldogs probably would face No. 14 UCF, which is guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s Six Bowl as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion.
With No. 9 Penn State and No. 11 TCU the highest-ranked teams remaining, they would head to the Cotton Bowl Classic.
Here’s what the New Year’s Six and New Year’s Day would look like, based on this week’s rankings:
Friday, Dec. 29
Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 11 TCU vs. No. 9 Penn State (Arlington, Texas)
Saturday, Dec. 30
Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 USC vs. No. 8 Ohio State (Glendale, Ariz.)
Orange Bowl: No. 7 Miami vs. No. 5 Alabama (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Monday, Jan. 1
Peach Bowl: No. 14 UCF vs. No. 6 Georgia (Atlanta)
Rose Bowl (CFP semifinal): No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 2 Auburn
Sugar Bowl (CFP semifinal): No. 4 Wisconsin vs.
