Take these to the bank.
Last year I eased into my preseason predictions, did a fair amount of hedging, and chose some obscure stats. The results weren’t great. I’m taking a different approach this time. With the confidence of Jordan Poole shooting an open jumper, here are my predictions for Michigan in this upcoming basketball season.
Wolverines win the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament
Michigan travels to Mohegan Sun Casino in Uncasville, Connecticut for a four-team tournament the weekend before Thanksgiving. U-M draws George Washington on Saturday, Nov. 17. I think Michigan wins this game and beats either South Carolina or Providence in the championship the next day.
Michigan splits nonconference rematches
The Wolverines visit Villanova on Nov. 14 in a rematch of last season’s national championship. They host North Carolina in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, the same team they played in last year’s event. Michigan lost both those games a season ago.
The rematches will look drastically different. Michigan lost three key players. Villanova lost its top four scorers, all of whom had college eligibility remaining, to the NBA. North Carolina graduated Joel Berry II and Theo Pinson. But both teams recruited well and have talented returns (the Tar Heels‘ Luke Maye is a preseason AP All-American; Phil Booth and Eric Paschall are back for the Wildcats).
I think Michigan’s first loss of the season will occur at Villanova. But Michigan will beat North Carolina on Wednesday, Nov. 28. And here’s a real guarantee: Many fans will complain the Carolina game tips at 9:30.
Zavier Simpson will be the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year
I’m taking the step I was unwilling to with Brazdeikis. Many voters like shot blockers and the 6-foot Simpson is not that, but he’ll have enough steals to get voters‘ attention. And those willing to dig deeper will see his knack for shutting down his opponent.
No Wolverine was honored on the league’s All-Defensive team last season. Simpson took the snub personally, as he is prone to do. I believe he’ll have to find different motivation — and you can bet he will — this postseason.
The offense finds a way
One of the keys to Michigan’s offense improving as last season went on was John Beilein figuring out how to best deploy Simpson. As much as Michigan will miss the offensive punch of Moritz Wagner, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, and Duncan Robinson, the importance of the point guard in Beilein’s system shouldn’t be overlooked.
The Simpson we saw in last year’s Big Ten Tournament — a maestro with the ball, finishing over taller defenders or setting up his teammates for easy baskets — should emerge earlier this season, even as Michigan works in several new pieces. Michigan finished last season ranked 35th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, and despite the personnel losses I think they’ll hang around that number.
The foul shooting is still bad
The Wolverines shot just 66 percent as a team from the foul line last season. That ranked 326 out of 351 Division I teams. Only two major-conference schools (both in the Big Ten) shot worse.
The major culprits — Charles Matthews and Simpson — are back and figure to get to the line even more this season. Robinson was an excellent foul shooter. Abdur-Rahkman was very good, as was Wagner, especially for a center. Michigan can count on Poole, but it’s dicey after that. Wagner’s replacement, Jon Teske, is better than his 35 for 61 showing last season would indicate, but he’ll still have to prove it in games.
Ignas Brazdeikis makes the Big Ten All-Freshman team
I was tempted to pick Brazdeikis as the Freshman of the Year in the conference, but that’s hard with Indiana’s Romeo Langford — the No. 7 recruit in the country — being the lone freshman named to the 10-man preseason All-Big Ten team.
But Brazdeikis is an aggressive scorer who will start for Michigan and should get heavy minutes. Factor in that he’s one of the top five rookies in the conference as far as talent and, well, I’m starting my predictions with a somewhat safe bet.
A top-3 finish in the Big Ten
Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska will finish, in some order, at the top of the regular season standings. Indiana will make a push as well, and don’t sleep on Maryland. The Wolverines will finish in one of the top three spots for the first time since winning the Big Ten in 2014.
Second weekend of the Big Dance
Come NCAA Tournament time, I think Michigan finds itself in a similar spot to last year: A favorite in its opener and a toss-up to advance to the Sweet 16. Betting on Beilein in the Big Dance is always smart, so the prediction here is that Michigan gets to the second weekend.
